Nuclear N. Korea would unravel balance of power, analysts fear

By Michael Dorgan
Knight Ridder Newspapers

BEIJING — The prospect that North Korea soon may acquire an arsenal of nuclear weapons is scaring security experts around the globe.

"This is a scenario nobody wants to think about," said Paik Jin-hyun, a North Korea expert at Seoul National University in South Korea.

North Korea could destroy the delicate balance of power in Northeast Asia — where the interests of the United States, China, Japan and Russia collide — by triggering another arms race, said Zhu Feng, a North Korea expert at Peking University in China's capital.

"The security architecture of the region would collapse overnight," he said, if a nuclear North Korea became an accepted fact.

Since North Korea withdrew late last year from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and reactivated its nuclear facilities, it has moved closer each month to becoming a full-blown nuclear power.

President Bush says he seeks a diplomatic solution to the mounting crisis but that all options are on the table, a clear reference to possible military action.

Military options are limited, because crucial targets are well hidden in tunnels under North Korea's mountains and because strikes could provoke a massive retaliation against South Korea.

A nuclear North Korea would provide nuclear wanna-bes or terrorists with inspiration — and possibly actual materials in exchange for cash — to make the whole planet a more dangerous place, according to Anthony Cordesman, a security strategist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based research center.

"Every time a country formally proliferates, the example spreads around the world," he said.

The epicenter of impact, however, would be Northeast Asia. One fear is that Japan would "quietly re-examine its nuclear option," said Cordesman, which probably would provoke China into beefing up its nuclear arsenal.

South Korea would come under pressure to go nuclear, according to Paik.

North Korea and South Korea, separated by the world's most heavily fortified border, technically remain at war, even though the 50th anniversary of the armistice that ended fighting in the Korean War was celebrated yesterday.

So far, South Korea's government has played down the nuclear threat that has grown since North Korea admitted last October that it had a uranium-enrichment program to develop bombs, a violation of a 1994 agreement with the United States.

South Korean officials generally were dismissive of North Korea's announcement earlier this month that it had completed reprocessing 8,000 spent fuel rods, which experts say would provide enough plutonium for five or six bombs. They also shrugged off a recent New York Times report that said North Korea might have a second nuclear-reprocessing plant at a secret location.

South Korea's government still hopes that its so-called sunshine policy of reconciliation with its surly neighbor will pay off eventually with a decision in Pyongyang to halt the nuclear program.

But Paik said his country's government would have to shift its policy if efforts to shut down North Korea's weapons programs failed and it became a bona fide nuclear power.

"North Korea having nuclear weapons would change the military balance between North and South Korea and would force South Korea to respond," he said.

Taiwan also would come under pressure to go nuclear, according to Andrew Yang, the secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a security research center in Taipei.

The United States probably would accelerate its development of a missile-defense system, which could provoke a further nuclear buildup by China but also by Russia.

"Strategic effects are never predictable," Cordesman said.

"This would not play out over days or months but would shape the strategic character of Asia for years," he said.