COMMENTARY
State's political tide can turn again

By John Griffin

Gov. Linda Lingle could help the Bush image in Hawai'i if she's able to muster White House support to get the Akaka bill passed. Advertiser library photo

Will Republican Linda Lingle's victory in the 2002 governor's race turn out to be a blessing for Hawai'i's fief-ridden Democratic Party?

Is President Bush the best hope for Hawai'i Democrats to keep control of the Legislature in next year's election and maybe help win back the governor's office in 2006?

I ponder such questions while looking over the national and local political scenes in this murky year of war, economic debate and preparing for the next elections.

Yes, both Lingle and the conservative Bush, in their very different situations, seem to be doing well. They appear on track for re-election in slowly improving economies.

In contrast, Democrats nationally are looking for a winnable presidential candidate and an attractive message to win back swing voters in a country that now seems evenly split. Hawai'i Democrats also are in search of their liberal soul. It got eroded and misplaced during 40 years in power.

Conventional wisdom is that Bush will win again next year unless the economy goes south again because of his "Leave No Millionaire Behind" fiscal policies. Just to make sure, he'll probably run a khaki campaign as the president who led the nation from the ashes of 9-11 to victory in two wars.

In all this, nobody should underestimate the Republican public relations and spin machine. It is far better than disjointed Democratic efforts to find attractive positions with the voters on the vital economic and national-security issues.

However, if Bush hasn't yet seized defeat from the jaws of victory, he's got problems: chaos, resentment and continuing casualties in Afghanistan, where the Taliban is back, and in Iraq, where Saddam Hussein and Co. may still be at large and pulling strings.

Mix in our War on Terror, which has produced both some arrests and many domestic civil-rights abuses and threats. And Osama bin Laden remains among the wanted while his al-Qaida disciples use their deadly skills in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.

How all this will play in Hawai'i is one of the good (and yet unanswerable) questions as we head toward another election season.

Bush lost Hawai'i to Al Gore in the disputed 2000 election. He could do better next year, but whether that means coattails for local Republican candidates to ride into the Legislature or Congress is as uncertain as how the economy and national-security issues will play here.

Lingle ran her own race last year with, it seems to me, relatively few overt ties with the White House and national Republican issues. She ran more on Hawai'i's need for a two-party system to replace an infirm Democratic machine too long in power.

In office, she has often been more narrowly partisan and thin-skinned than many expected. But a dominant image has also been of slick and effective PR that often seems patterned after those of the Bush White House.

Popular or not, next year Bush will be running for re-election and looking to Lingle for public support. That, plus differences with the mostly Democratic Legislature, could make her seem more strident and more narrowly Republican, some observers say.

At the same time, it could help the Bush image here (not to mention Lingle's stature) if she is able to get administration support in pushing the Akaka bill on Hawaiian rights through the Republican-dominated Congress. On the other hand, lack of Bush administration support on this sends a negative message to many people in our liberal state.

A good question, then, is: How Democratic is Hawai'i now?

Still a lot — but also diluting in favor of more independence. Last year's combination of Lingle's clever, less partisan campaign approach and Democratic disintegration removed for many old-timers and youngsters the local stigma against voting Republican. After all, several of Lingle's top aides are former Democrats.

This leaves Hawai'i Democrats between a rock and reform, and some of the top members see it that way.

"Lingle's election could be the best thing that happened to us," said one leader. "We've got to figure out what we are and where we want to go while Hawai'i is still a responsible, liberal state. We need a positive message, not negative campaigning."

Some veterans note that Hawai'i has often been counter-cyclical to what happens on the national scene. Certainly, the now-frayed state Democratic old-boy network survived Republican presidents from Eisenhower to Bush the First.

"Lingle could be a blip if Democrats regroup and reform enough," said one longtime independent observer. "Democrats may even gain seats in the Legislature next year if Bush continues to build liberal resentment."

Against that I would put the words of a veteran national political writer who commented, "Liberal Democrats always underestimate Republican presidents and think they are dumb."

So, at this point, I wouldn't underestimate Bush as a candidate next year, or Lingle's "two-party" appeals and skills. But I still want to believe in the Hawai'i Democrats' capacity to rediscover their basic liberal message, find a new generation, and eventually rise from the ashes of their own decay.

John Griffin, former editor of The Advertiser's editorial pages, is a frequent contributor.