THE RISING EAST
Nuclear arms race in East Asia a grim possibility
By Richard Halloran
Shortly after North Korea's nuclear ambitions had been discovered, an American pondered in a round-table discussion in South Korea: "Why not let the North Koreans go ahead with their plans to get the bomb, but warn them that any move to use it would draw devastating destruction?"
A senior retired South Korean diplomat snapped: "We would never allow that. If they get nuclear weapons, we must have them, too." He said it with such finality that the discussion ended there. If both Koreas have nuclear arms, Japan would most likely reconsider its policy of forgoing nuclear weapons despite that nation's pervasive nuclear allergy remaining from the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.
Japanese confidence in the American nuclear umbrella would be severely strained if the United States does not prevent North Korea, either by diplomacy or military power, from acquiring nuclear arms. A spreading attitude in Japan was voiced by Teramasu Nakanishi of Kyoto University and Kazuya Fukuda, a critic, who wrote in a magazine: "The best way for Japan to avoid being the target of North Korean nuclear missiles is for the prime minister to declare without delay that Japan will arm itself with nuclear weapons."
If Japan goes nuclear, could Taiwan, which once had a secret plan to produce nuclear weapons but was dissuaded by Washington, be far behind? Further, Vietnam has been negotiating with several countries, including South Korea, to build its first nuclear power plant.
Yonhap News Agency via Associated Press
Altogether, the prospect of a nuclear arms race in East Asia as a consequence of permitting North Korea to acquire nuclear arms is unsettling, to say the least. Moreover, fresh evidence suggests that the Bush administration, which has been in a running verbal battle with the North Koreans intended to dissuade them from their nuclear aspirations, is seeing its objective fast receding.
North Korea's spent nuclear fuel rods, kept in a cooling pond, are seen at the nuclear facilities in Yong-byon, North Korea, in this 1996 photo. U.S. officials say North Korea has restarted a reactor at its main nuclear complex, the first step toward production of additional nuclear weapons. According to a Russian specialist on North Korea, "Kim Jong Il's nuclear breakout strategy is not a bluff. ... He wants the Bomb."
A well-informed Russian specialist on North Korea, Alexandre Mansourov, has written that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, is not interested in negotiating with the United States. "Kim Jong Il's nuclear breakout strategy is not a bluff," Mansourov says. "It is not a bargaining ploy. Nor is it negotiable for him at this stage. He wants the Bomb, and North Korea will do its utmost to become a nuclear state."
Mansourov, a scholar at the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies, a U.S. government institute in Honolulu, is fluent in Korean and earned an advanced diploma in Korean studies at the Kim Il Sung National University in Pyongyang. Named for the late leader of North Korea, it is that nation's most prestigious university.
At the same time, the Bush administration evidently has inspired leaks to The New York Times and Los Angeles Times suggesting that it has given up trying to stop North Korea's march to acquire a nuclear arsenal and is considering sanctions, deterrence and missile defenses to counter Pyongyang.
Those leaks appear to have been aimed at the Chinese, Japanese, Russian and South Korean governments that have been reluctant to press North Korea to give up its nukes. The Bush administration seems to be saying: "OK, guys, if you don't want to confront the North Koreans, we'll back off and leave it to you to figure out what to do."
President Bush appeared to confirm that stance during his press conference last week. "This is a regional issue," the president said. Many nations "have got a direct stake into whether or not North Korea has nuclear weapons," specifically mentioning China, South Korea and Russia. "The best way to deal with North Korea is to convince parties to assume their responsibility."
President Bush has so far ruled out direct negotiation with the North Koreans because they have failed repeatedly to live up to commitments made in past negotiations. There is no reason to believe they would honor any agreement now but would seek more concessions through brinkmanship in the future.
That has left Bush with the option of a military strike on North Korea's nuclear reactors. The U.S. Air Force has moved 24 B-1 and B-52 bombers to Guam, within easy range of North Korea. Air Force officers say they could disable the reactors with conventional weapons, without releasing radiation, by hitting electric power sources, transmission lines, supply roads and auxiliary buildings. North Korea, however, might retaliate with an artillery and rocket barrage on Seoul, only 35 miles south of the demilitarized zone that divides the Korean Peninsula, inflicting tens of thousands of casualties among South Korean civilians.
In turn, U.S. and South Korean forces would launch an assault on North Korea; war plans call for invading North Korea and destroying Kim Jong Il's regime. That is, if the South Koreans are willing to fight. The new president, Roh Moo- hyun, has indicated that he might not go along with the United States in attacking the North.
Richard Halloran formerly was a New York Times correspondent in Asia and Washington. Reach him at oranhall@hawaii.rr.com.
