Posted on: Wednesday, March 12, 2003

Analysts say Iraq war would hit state hard

By David Briscoe
Associated Press

War in Iraq could have a heavy impact across the Pacific, cutting off Japanese tourism from Indonesia to Hawai'i, escalating tension on the Korean Peninsula, and possibly increasing fuel costs everywhere, analysts said in a prewar forum yesterday.

In a sweeping look at potential economic, social and political repercussions of war, there was little optimism at the East-West Center about the buildup for a possible U.S.-led attack to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Indonesian expert Richard Baker said it is wrong to think that Hawai'i could escape becoming the target of terrorist attack.

Citing terrorist activity in such unlikely resort or business centers as Bali and Singapore, Baker described O'ahu as "a center of cultural tourism, a resort, a communications and hugely important military center and one of symbolic value to a potential terrorist."

He said Indonesia's tourism is suffering even more than Hawai'i's, after a terrorist bombing in October killed more than 200 people, mostly foreign tourists, in Bali.

Baker said Honolulu is somewhat protected by being isolated. "But terrorists always think two steps farther out of the box," and need only to focus on "one weak link."

On her trip to Washington and New York last month, Gov. Linda Lingle touted Hawai'i as one of the least likely targets for terrorist attack.

Energy researcher Jeff Brown said that while Hawai'i does not depend on Middle Eastern oil, the world supply is like a "big swimming pool," and a shortage anywhere will affect all nations, even in Asia, which has its own sources.

"Even though we currently don't get oil from (the Middle East), we're very much at risk," he said.

Hawai'i gets most of its crude oil from Alaska, China and Indonesia, Brown said.

Choong Nam Kim, a former political affairs aide to two South Korean presidents, said if war is waged against Iraq, the United States and South Korea should be "very careful" about any changes to American forces in South Korea.

The next move for North Korea could be testing an underground nuclear device or a ballistic missile, which could increase tension on the peninsula, Kim said.

But it is unlikely North Korea would strike at Japan or Hawai'i, he said. "An attack would mean the end of North Korea, which could not last more than one week."

Kim said the Communist country is concerned about becoming the next American target.

Sheila Smith, an East-West Center fellow who studies U.S.-Japan security relations, said Japan's cooperation has been invaluable leading up to a possible war against Iraq, including help getting support from other U.N. Security Council members and the five Japanese supply ships in the Persian Gulf region.

"The Japanese public is uneasy," Smith said, but there is a "general sense" that it is right to support the United States.

There will be no support, however, when it comes to tourism to Hawai'i, she said.

"If there's a war — if there's a conflict — no Japanese tourists. The Japanese will not travel," she said. "We can reassure them that Hawai'i's safe, but I think you will see that impact very clearly."

Muhamad Ali, a lecturer at the State Islamic University in Jakarta, Indonesia, said Muslims there feel solidarity with Iraqis, which is fueling public opposition to the war.

If the United States attacks, he said, "moderates will become radicals, and the radicals will become more radical."