Three layers of protection surround Saddam
By Mark Magnier and Paul Richter
Los Angeles Times
KUWAIT CITY — At the heart of Saddam Hussein's bid to forestall a humiliating defeat in the days ahead are the Republican Guard and two lesser-known, handpicked units that protect the Iraqi leader and his family.
The cream of Saddam's military are not the best trained or best equipped in the world, and even the loyalty of some among their ranks is suspect. That said, U.S. military and intelligence officials and security analysts believe they could inflict thousands of casualties in urban battles before the war winds down.
"The Republican Guard is absolutely essential to Saddam Hussein's strategy for war," said Gary Samore, director of studies with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former Clinton administration official. "He hopes they'll be able to hold out in Baghdad long enough to create an international uproar that puts enough pressure on Washington and London so he'll be able to survive."
The inner core of Saddam's military is made up of three rings that become increasingly loyal to the dictator as they get closer to him: the Republican Guard, Special Republican Guard and Special Security Organization.
The six divisions of the Republican Guard, with more than 60,000 members, emerged from the Iran-Iraq war and were highly regarded in the region at the time of the Persian Gulf War. The Special Republican Guard, whose members have been culled from the Republican Guard and are known for their intense loyalty to Saddam, numbers about 15,000. The Special Security Organization, the unit closest to Saddam and his family, has about 1,000 members and monitors the other units for signs of disloyalty.
Republican Guard divisions have the best heavy equipment in the Iraqi military. These include most of Iraq's Soviet-built T-72 tanks, which at about 30 years old are the newest in Saddam's inventory. The guard also has a large number of anti-tank guided missiles.
Analysts said they expect the Republican Guard to avoid battle in open terrain, where nonexistent air support and their inferior tank range put them at a big disadvantage. They might blow up bridges or flood the former marshland in the south, but their principal task will be to remain in urban areas.
Cities afford a better fight from their perspective, particularly in Baghdad, given that the Americans and British will be reluctant to kill civilians, blunting in turn the allies' superior technology, intelligence and training.
A likely clash could see the U.S. Third Infantry Division matched up against the Republican Guard's Medina, Hamurabi and Nebuchadnezzar divisions south of Baghdad, analysts said.
Ultimately, Saddam hopes to heap so much pressure on the United States and Britain with mounting civilian body counts that they are forced to back down, analysts said.
