Hawai'i visitor numbers take a quick nosedive
By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer
The number of passengers on international flights to Hawai'i fell 29 percent yesterday, but more troubling to tourism executives was a drop in domestic travelers on the first day of the war with Iraq.
Japanese tour businesses said they expected to lose as much as half their business as travelers postpone or cancel trips because of the conflict.
Expecting that international visitor counts would drop, Hawai'i tourism industry officials hoped visits by Mainland residents would stay relatively constant.
But state figures show visitors from the Mainland are also staying home. Yesterday's domestic passenger counts were not immediately available, but the numbers fell 6.4 percent for Wednesday compared to the same day a year ago. That means about 900 fewer Mainland visitors arrived.
That led to a drop of 11.7 percent in total passengers as the deadline for Saddam Hussein to leave Iraq passed and the U.S.-led attack on Iraq began. The international passenger count fell 17 percent on Wednesday.
The visitor counts are closely monitored because the strength of Hawai'i's $10 billion tourist industry is the leading indicator of the state's economic health. Of the 6.4 million visitors to Hawai'i last year, about 1.5 million were Japanese, with the majority of the rest coming from the Mainland.
Much depends on the duration of the war, and passenger counts may continue until the fighting ends, the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism said yesterday.
Their fears are rooted in their experience after the Sept. 11 attacks, when visitor arrivals plummeted by 20 percent to 40 percent, a decline from which the industry has not fully recovered. Some also remember a similar devastating decline 12 years ago following the first Persian Gulf War.
State officials are trying to mitigate damage to the industry. The Hawai'i Visitors and Convention Bureau Web site, gohawaii.com, promoted a message from Gov. Linda Lingle calling Hawai'i an "especially appropriate place for vacations and meetings in these unsettled times ... Hawai'i enjoys the peace of mind that comes from U.S. security standards ... but in a unique island setting."
Hawai'i Tourism Authority officials also said Lingle is scheduled to videotape a similar message today for travel agents to show customers.
Tourism authority officials are planning to send a delegation to Japan, but discussions continue about when to make the trip and whether Lingle will lead the group.
"You've gotta have the head of state be there," House Speaker Calvin Say said yesterday. Original plans were to make the trip in two to three weeks.
Lingle, however, remained uncommitted yesterday.
"What the timing might be on this, I don't know right now," she said. "It's something to continue to weigh."
Gilbert Kimura, director of passenger and cargo sales in Hawai'i for Japan Airlines, said the governor should go to Japan, but not until the war ends and "things are settled."
"It'd be kind of foolish to go to Japan during the war ... and say Hawai'i is safe," Kimura said.
The tourism authority is cancelling television and print advertising across all markets and redirecting money toward other types of efforts, including cooperative marketing campaigns with airlines.
The tourism authority can pull back about $1.4 million in advertising expenses over three months. Reinstituting that advertising will depend on the length of the war and other circumstances.
Officials plan to target dependable markets such as the West Coast and frequent travelers, "because we believe they're more willing to get on airplanes to go to Hawai'i," said Frank Haas, tourism authority marketing director.
The Legislature is considering giving the tourism authority as much as $8 million in surplus money for marketing.
Not everyone is happy with the tourism authority's war contingency plans.
"I just did not see anything terribly imaginative," said Chuck Gee, dean emeritus of the University of Hawai'i School of Travel Industry Management. "It was a plan that was made from the top. It would have been a much better plan had a lot more consultation taken place."
Although the state figures show a decline in visitor arrivals, some tourism businesses said they saw no significant change in business and no large increase in cancellations.
But several Waikiki businesses acknowledged they are worried about a drop-off in tourism. "Everybody's worried," said Ted Cesneros, an ABC store manager.
Aston Hotels & Resorts President Kelvin Bloom said Hawai'i's tourism industry is doing better than some other locations. On a recent trip to San Francisco, Bloom found some hotels with occupancy levels in the mid-50 to 60 percent range, "so they were really hurting."
Hoteliers in Hawai'i depend on March and spring break as one of the strongest times of the year to make up for slower months.
David Carey, CEO of Outrigger Enterprises, said hotels should be seeing occupancy in the high 80 percent to 90 percent range during this period, but the numbers are coming in about 70 percent.
He said Outrigger has had cancellations in the last couple of days, "but not at extraordinary levels."
Some businesses will be focusing on the kama'aina market, although the cutbacks in interisland flights since last December make it more difficult to drum up business.
Aston, for one, cut its prices to attract more business several weeks ago but does not plan any further reductions. Bloom is waiting to see what happens with the war and how travel is affected before making further moves.
Until the first attacks on Iraq, "We were quite encouraged with our advance bookings for the spring in that our April was coming in very strong," Bloom said. "Now as a result of the war, I think everything remains to be seen."
