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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, March 28, 2003

Mainland arrivals down

By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer

Mainland visitors, who provided lift to the Hawai'i tourism industry since the Sept. 11 attacks, are starting to show signs of slumping.

For the first time since April last year, the number of Mainland arrivals is dropping. State figures released yesterday showed a 4.7 percent decline in domestic arrivals in February, compared with year-earlier numbers. Visitors from the Western states fell 4.1 percent; arrivals from the Eastern states fell 7.1 percent.

"The uncertainty of war has now halted the continuous growth in domestic arrivals that began in May 2002," said Theodore Liu, director of the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. "Looking forward, we might expect that visitor activities will slow during the next few months as the conflict plays out."

In addition to the war, negative economic news is also discouraging travel.

The Travel Industry Association in a report Wednesday said leisure travel is likely to dip further because of the war in Iraq, an increased terror threat, low consumer confidence, and the loss of 300,000 jobs nationwide in February.

The focus now is on how soon the conflict in Iraq will end.

If the war lasts one quarter, the association forecasts tht air traffic to decline 15 percent. A quick resolution to the war could lead to recovery by the summer travel season and tourism could benefit from pent-up demand.

The drop in domestic visitors contributed to a slight decrease in total visitors. About 501,260 visitors came to Hawai'i in February —down 0.2 percent compared with a year ago.

The more encouraging news for the tourism industry was that the total number of days visitors spent here increased 4.8 percent in February. The average stay was 9.86 days, up 5 percent from a year ago.

"We're relatively pleased with the performance of Hawai'i's visitor industry growth in February, especially in light of how travel is evolving nationwide," said Tony Vericella, president of the Hawai'i Visitors & Convention Bureau. He said nationwide passenger traffic declined by 1.4 percent during February.

"The buildup to war in Iraq had an obvious dampening effect on travel during the month," Vericella said.

Domestic arrivals to Hawai'i numbered 328,519 in February. Domestic arrivals to O'ahu had the biggest decline of 12.7 percent compared with last February. The Big Island and Kaua'i also had declines, while Moloka'i, Lana'i and Maui had increases in U.S. visitors.

Liz Marquez, spokeswoman for the Fairmont Kea Lani on Maui, said there was no slowdown in business in February at her resort.

"Everything is running smoothly for us," Marquez said. February through April are busy months for group travel, which has helped to keep occupancy steady at the Fairmont. "It's still the United States, and they feel very safe here."

International arrivals were up 9.5 percent to 172,741 in February, compared with a year ago. That increase was expected because in February 2002, international arrivals were still reeling from the falloff after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Japanese visitor arrivals increased 9.1 percent in February.

Momentum in the Japanese market continued through February, but bookings for March and April started slowing considerably, Vericella said.

The number of cruise visitors fell 6.1 percent to 17,581.

Reach Kelly Yamanouchi at 535-2470, or kyamanouchi@honoluluadvertiser.com.