By Jerry Burris
Advertiser Editorial Editor

The report was generated by a higher-education think tank, but its findings represent somber policy implications far beyond our university system.

The report, a "policy alert" from the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, warns that a combination of economic factors will make it all but impossible for most states to maintain present levels of public services over the next several years.

The choice will be to rethink or reduce what states provide to their publics or find new sources of money (read that, higher taxes).

The center is focused on higher education, so its thrust is to warn colleges and universities that they must begin thinking of other sources of income to replace dwindling support from state tax dollars.

But as Hawai'i legislators know only too well, the policy implications go far beyond that. If this report is correct, the next several years will present painful decisions in all areas, from public education to social services and beyond.

What is particularly striking about this report is that the grim news is nationwide. In Hawai'i, we tend to tell ourselves (perhaps to reassure ourselves) that our problems are particular in nature, and temporary.

We like to think that our economic downturn is the result of temporary factors such as a war or a dip in the Japanese economy. When the war ends or the Japanese economy rebounds, we will be back to the days of healthy economic growth.

Our history is partially responsible for this mindset.

Since statehood, and actually even before that, waves of new opportunity would wash ashore, replacing one economic engine with another. Whaling and sandalwood gave way to pineapple and sugar agriculture, which gave way to the first tourism boom, which gave way to construction and land development, which gave way to the next tourism boom and so forth.

But it is becoming increasingly clear that our boom days are over, to be replaced by something closer to national patterns. That is the message of the center's report.

The assumptions in the report are modest: It simply asks what kind of income and spending would be required to keep current public service levels, assuming taxes are not raised and economic growth returns to normal or "average" rates.

In Hawai'i, the report says, if public service levels remain constant, economic growth is normal and taxes don't change, Hawai'i falls short by about 3.6 percent of what it would need. That 3.6 percent represents millions and millions of dollars.

So that presents a stark public policy choice: cut services or raise taxes?

Yes, we can hope for more robust economic growth to dig us out of our hole, but the report already assumes a return to growth patterns better than what we have seen recently.

Bottom line: The era of hoping that things will take care of themselves is over. The question is whether our elected policy-makers at both state and county levels have the guts to admit that and step into the tough decisions ahead.

Reach Jerry Burris through letters@honoluluadvertiser.com.