Experts warn of possible labor shortage in Hawai'i
| • | Chart: Jobs with the most openings |
By Sean Hao
Advertiser Staff Writer
Despite a tourism sector still recovering from the impact of recent world events, Hawai'i's economy continues to send positive signs of strength: a jobless rate trending lower, brisk business activity and rising personal incomes.
Advertiser library photo
So what would happen if the state's economy really started to pick up steam?
Workers in food preparation and serving will be most in demand in Hawai'i this decade, the state Labor Department projects. Experts say the state's aging population and several large developments will pump up the demand for labor.
That's a question many labor experts are pondering as demographic trends, including the state's aging population, and several large business developments planned within the next several years are expected to pump up the demand for labor.
Some employment experts warn that a lack of skilled labor could hamper efforts to expand and diversify the state's economy, ultimately forcing companies to import workers or export jobs.
The state's public and private education systems funnel about 13,000 people into Hawai'i's workforce each year, according to data gathered by Michael Rota, associate vice president for academic affairs at the University of Hawai'i.
That number is well shy of the 21,560 annual job openings expected on average each year through 2010, according to the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations.
Part of the gap is filled by military spouses and others who move to Hawai'i temporarily, and workers who move here from out of state.
And the job projection doesn't take into account the dampening effects of the war in Iraq or the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome.
But there still remains a significant shortfall going 10 years out.
"We just don't have the bodies to fill these job vacancies," Rota said.
Some of the projected openings arise from job growth, while others will be created as people either retire, move to the Mainland or exit the workplace for other reasons, said Francisco Corpuc, a labor department research statistician.
The state data can help educational institutions and Hawai'i industries pinpoint the types of occupations likely to experience growth, Corpuc said.
Jobs in sales, service industries such as food preparation, and office and administrative support are expected to experience the most growth on an annual basis.
Other positions, including food servers, dishwashers and switchboard operators, will continue to be in demand but will decline in overall employment at the decade's end, according to the labor department.
Fields in which Hawai'i may find itself lacking adequate skilled labor include healthcare, technology and education.
Demographics is playing a role; the state's aging population is a major cause for the growing demand in the healthcare, just as the movement of baby boomers' offspring through the educational pipeline creates jobs in schools.
At The Queen's Medical Center, nurse recruiting and retention programs have been stepped up over several years to meet an expected increase in demand for medical services and to offset the retirement of nurses.
"We continue to work hard to make sure we don't" run into a shortage of nurses, said Barbara Mathews, vice president for patient care and chief nursing officer at Queen's. "It's nothing we could stop doing and expect to not have a shortage."
The expected job growth also is being driven by several large business developments expected in coming years. Among these:
• Norwegian Cruise Lines plans to sail three cruise ships in Hawai'i by 2007, creating an estimated 10,200 jobs in the state, according to a report by PriceWaterhouse Coopers. The figure includes 3,000 onboard jobs.
• Developers of an aquarium at Ko Olina Resort plan to generate 10,000 construction jobs, as well as 2,000 permanent jobs once the project is completed sometime during this decade.
• High-tech companies benefiting from the state's technology investment and research tax credits expect to create 7,500 jobs by 2006, according to the Hawai'i Technology Trade Association.
Even if all of the projected jobs materialize, they won't benefit the state if there is a dearth of skilled labor.
"Right now, as companies want to come into Hawai'i and start recruiting large numbers of workers here, we're really wary because we just don't have the right workforce," said Jane Yamashiro, director of business retention and expansion at Enterprise Honolulu.
One solution is to ensure the state does a better job of retaining the roughly 3,000 young workers who leave for the Mainland each year. Another is retraining the workforce for the jobs of tomorrow and recruiting out-of-state workers with the needed skills, labor experts said.
Yamashiro says the problem could get worse if economic activity accelerates statewide.
The jobless rate in Hawai'i was 3.4 percent in March, rising from a 12-year-low of 3 percent the month prior.
"This is really a crisis that we're heading toward," she said.
Bruce Coppa, director of the union-backed Pacific Resources Partnership, said there is considerable worry within the construction industry about a pending labor shortage. "It is a valid concern, especially with the military contracts," he said.
The Defense Department plans to upgrade and privatize management of local military housing under several massive contracts to be awarded during the next four years. The properties involved are expected to include about 2,000 Navy homes, 7,700 Army homes, 2,300 Marine Corps homes and 1,356 Air Force homes, as well as other facilities.
Just how many jobs these housing projects will create during the next decade isn't readily known. However, at least one union is making plans to boost the available workforce in anticipation of a boom in business.
"We're going to need another 300 to 400 qualified carpenters over the next several years, maybe more in five years," said Ron Takeda, financial secretary for the Hawaii Carpenters Union.
The union has stepped up recruiting efforts and apprenticeship training programs, and is pursuing journeymen who have left the trade to fill those positions.
"There's going to be a large increase in the amount of work," Takeda said. "It's going to be a challenge for anyone to locate the skilled manpower."
Reach Sean Hao at shao@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8093.
