Carriers add seats to Islands

By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer

Flights from the Mainland are picking up, spurring hope that the uncertainty and airline cuts that characterized the past 18 months may be easing.

Almost 311,000 domestic airline seats to Hawai'i have been added for the year, particularly for the tourism industry's important summer months, according to data from the Hawai'i Visitors & Convention Bureau.

The total domestic seats to the state projected for the year is about 5.8 million, about 1.2 percent higher than the record in 2000.

The increases are widespread: Aloha, American, Hawaiian and other airlines are adding flights as well as charter operations Hawaiian Vacations, Pleasant Holidays and Suntrips.

"Some of it's probably seasonal," said Fred Collison, a professor of transportation at the University of Hawai'i's School of Travel Industry Management. "Some of it is more than that."

The added flights include several that were restored after cuts six months ago in anticipation of the war with Iraq, he said. It's too early to calculate whether the additional domestic flights will help make up for the decline in Japanese flights to the Islands. International arrivals have fallen sharply because of the war and effects of SARS, and it's unclear what airlines will do for the balance of the year.

Collison said he does not see the added domestic flights making up for the loss in international travelers "because the Japanese market's just too big and down too far right now to expect the domestic market to make up for it," Collison said.

The increase in domestic flights and decline in international flights is another sign in what may be a long-term shift in Hawai'i's tourism industry. As the Japanese economy has weakened and fears of terrorism, infectious disease and international conflict have grown, the Japanese market has proven especially vulnerable to fluctuations.

Mainland and Canadian travelers, in contrast, are less skittish about traveling during times of uncertainty and more apt to take advantage of travel bargains.

Barbara Okamoto, HVCB vice president for customer relationship management, said unsettling world events lead people to drive to their vacations instead of flying to them, a tendency that hurts Hawai'i tourism.

But when travelers "feel like having a bigger vacation and they want an adventure," Hawai'i can reap the benefits, Okamoto said. Low air fares and hotel rates can also convince tourists to make the trip.

The numbers on airline seats show that may be happening.

As airline data systems become more sophisticated, flight additions and cuts become more like leading indicators for travel industry businesses.

"They can forecast future reservations very accurately," said B.J. Wie, also a professor of transportation at UH's TIM School.

And what they see now is telling them that people from the Mainland will come to Hawai'i. So much so that airlines in financial straits such as Hawaiian and American think it's a good idea to expand flights.

"I think it's just a healthy sign," said Murray Towill, president of the Hawai'i Hotel Association, "certainly given the financial situation the airlines are having."