Posted on: Friday, May 23, 2003
Summer travelers stay grounded
By Brad Foss
Associated Press
GREENVILLE, N.Y. — At the Greenville Arms in the Catskills, owner Eliot Dalton exudes spring-like optimism as a new coat of paint is applied to the backyard studio and flowers come to life.
Bookings are decent enough ahead of Memorial Day that he contemplates raising the rates at the inn, which is a retreat for artists.
"We're off to a slow start," Dalton said, noting the economic slump, "but it looks like we'll make up for it."
While the economy, SARS and terrorism are discouraging global tourism, domestic destinations near major cities could experience a boost in activity this summer as vacationers avoid air travel and faraway places, travel industry officials said.
Travel agents said they're seeing — and promoting — interest in road trips everywhere from the southern tip of the Appalachian mountains to northern Michigan's Mackinac Island, and across California's Sierra Nevada range.
By heightening the terror alert to orange this week, the government may have given travelers another reason to avoid airports and major metropolitan areas.
"Anything with a non-urban area ring to it is doing well," said John Stachnik, president of Mayflower Tours, a Downers, Ill.-based travel company specializing in bus and air travel. This summer, Stachnik added, motorcoach trips are the "shining star" of his business, accounting for more than 50 percent of revenue.
AAA, the Heathrow, Fla.-based travel agency, said the government's decision to raise the terror alert to orange on Tuesday would not affect its prediction from last week that 84 percent of all Memorial Day vacations will be by car and 11 percent by air.
"If something serious happens on our soil, then conditions could change," AAA spokesman Jerry Cheske said.
The owners of resorts and inns in Greenville, about 150 miles north of New York City, say advance bookings are flat or down 10 percent to 15 percent from a year ago so far, but that — as in past years — they expect a burst of business once it gets warmer.
"It's not as good as I'd like it to be, but I've been through this before," said Jyl DeGiovine, whose grandparents founded the Balsam Shade Resort in Greenville nearly 70 years ago. "It usually picks up at the last minute and everything is fine."
Airline industry analysts have less reason to hope, given the sorry state of passenger demand.
The total number of miles flown per passenger is down 7 percent from a year ago and more than 15 percent compared with 2001, the most recent Air Transport Association data shows.
A closer look reveals how fears of terrorism and SARS are altering travel patterns. For example, domestic bookings for North American and European air travel in June are slightly higher than a year ago, while travel demand to Asia, Africa and the Middle East are down sharply, according to Sabre Airline Solutions, the consulting arm of the Southlake, Texas-based travel reservation firm.
While the airline industry is seeing pockets of improved bookings, that demand is being generated at a price: cheap tickets. The average leisure fare on the 100 busiest U.S. routes is 7 percent cheaper than a year ago and 13 percent less than in 2001, according to New York-based Harrell Associates, a consulting firm that tracks airfares.
Ray Neidl, Blaylock & Partners' airline analyst, described industrywide yields, or revenue per mile flown, as "exceptionally weak."
Anemic demand for air travel is forcing travel agents to come up with other options, such as cruises and road trips.
"We're finding more and more people wanting to do things within a comfortable driving radius of, say 4 to 5 hours," said Dale Eyerly Colson, president of Travelstar Inc. of Westport, Conn.
