THE RISING EAST
Decade of economic languor saps Japan's vitality
By Richard Halloran
TOKYO — Japan seems dispirited these days.
Politics plods along without much zest, the economy remains stagnant and crime is up in a land once considered a model of law and order.
Moreover, a curious indicator of the dreary state of affairs is the scruffy appearance of many young men on the streets and in the subways.
Ten years ago, when the Cabinet of Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa fell, many Japan hands, including this one, thought that was the end of the postwar period and the beginning of a new era. Miyazawa was the last of the protégés of Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida, the towering figure of Japan's recovery from World War II. A new generation of younger and more imaginative leaders was to burst onto the stage.
Associated Press
We were wrong.
President Bush met Friday morning with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, left, at his ranch near Crawford, Texas. Some Japanese analysts are critical of Koizumi, saying he belongs in the same category as other nondescript Japanese leaders of the past decade.
In the past 10 years, Japan has had seven nondescript prime ministers who have shown little leadership, especially in steering the Japanese economy out of the doldrums in which the nation has languished for a decade. Fresh reports showed that the Japanese economy had a zero growth rate in the first three months of this year.
The place in this scheme of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has just met with President Bush in Texas, is open to question. Some say he is the first of a new breed of political leaders willing to break with the past, to take risks and to do what is needed to kick-start the economy.
Not so, say others. "He's the same second-rate politician as all the rest," said a Japanese editor. "He's lazy and never studies anything," said another.
Even so, Koizumi is likely to be re-elected in the fall, most likely because there appears to be no other realistic candidate on the horizon.
Several well-informed political analysts thought that Shinzo Abe was a rising star. He is the son of the late Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe and grandson of former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi. Today, as deputy chief Cabinet secretary, he coordinates the work of the departmental vice ministers who run the government.
Abe advocates a thorough revision of the constitution imposed on Japan by the United States after World War II, including Article IX, which forbids Japan to use military force to resolve international disputes.
"It is only natural that we in the 21st century rewrite it in a creative way to meet our needs," he has said.
A longtime political observer, asked if Abe was ready to become prime minister, replied: "Naah, he's too young. He's not yet 50." Most Japanese prime ministers have come to office in their mid-60s to mid-70s.
In contrast to the slide in politics and economics, the crime rate in Japan is up. Japan, like any country, has its share of organized crime and petty crooks. Nonetheless, a strong social ethic and a capable police force has kept crime in hand until now.
Last year, 2.7 million crimes were committed in Japan, a 60 percent increase over those committed in 1989. Moreover, the number of violent crimes — murder, rape, burglary, arson — has doubled in the same period.
A retired police leader, Atsuyuki Sassa, wrote recently that the reason for the skyrocketing crime rate was the slow disappearance of the koban, the police boxes from which patrolling policemen walked through neighborhoods keeping an eye on everything.
The effect appears to have been circular. As the crime rate has risen, more cops have been pulled out of the koban to solve violent cases. Consequently, the petty-crime rate has risen. In addition, Sassa asserted, police officials have become complacent, and morale has declined in the ranks.
A surprise to me, after an absence of three years, has been the noticeable number of unkempt young men on the trains. They're everywhere, hair dyed weird colors, uncut and uncombed, faces unshaven and unwashed, clothes ratty, their body language expressing sullen attitudes.
In contrast, the young women continue to be well-groomed, even in casual clothes.
Some Japanese said it's just a fad. Others asserted that the appearance of the young men showed how hard it was for them to get good jobs, and their appearance and attitude seemed to reflect their sense of hopelessness and gloomy view of life.
One wag contended that the seedy looks of the young men explains why young women are putting off marriage these days. "Who," she said with a sniff, "would want some of those guys?"
Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia and Washington. Reach him at oranhall@hawaii.rr.com.
