Global climate data to be in one system
By Jan TenBruggencate
Advertiser Science Writer
Scientists have studied the relationships between global climate and the atmosphere, the oceans, the land, sea ice and other factors — building models that relate global climate to each of them .
Now they're working to put all that information together in a single computerized model, which they hope will be the most accurate climate prediction tool ever made.
"If you want to run a really complete system, then you have to include it all," said Andreas Villwock, a member of the agency that runs the International Climate Variability and Prediction program, CLIVAR.
It is an incredibly complex job, and without the latest computer technology, it wouldn't be possible at all, said Ben Kirtman, a meteorologist and professor in climate dynamics at George Mason University.
The two were part of a program sponsored by the International Pacific Research Center, the climate research group of the University of Hawai'i's School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.
They said researchers for years have been studying the links between changes in the oceans and climate, changes in sea ice and climate, changes in the lower atmosphere and upper atmosphere and climate, and so on. But to really understand climate, all these things — including both how they interact and how they impact climate — need to be included.
"We have to get all these communities together and make the best predictions we can," Kirtman said.
This is different from predicting whether it will rain tomorrow, or whether the sun will shine on the weekend's beach activities. "We start where weather prediction ends — two weeks to a year in the future," he said.
And the predictions are not so detailed as to say whether it will rain on a particular day. Rather, it's things such as whether it will be a wetter or drier than normal season, stormier or calmer.
The researchers know that their data will be more accurate for certain areas than others. They figure prediction in tropical areas is generally going to be more accurate than in temperate zones.
"There are some regions where we can give nice tight probability estimates," Kirtman said. Other areas on the globe — notably the region between 40 degrees and 60 degrees south latitude — will have less accurate predictions. With time, climate scientists hope to improve that.
"To date, there is no model doing seasonal predictions that includes all the other models," Kirtman said.
"We are very much in the beginning," Villwock said.
Reach Jan TenBruggencate at jant@honoluluadvertiser.com or (808) 245-3074.
