THE RISING EAST
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By Richard Halloran
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's visit to South Korea last week should be seen for what it really was: an early step in a long, gradual disengagement of U.S. land forces from South Korea and a greater reliance on sea power to maintain the American security position in Asia.
As he flew through Northeast Asia, Rumsfeld sprinkled clues about the future of U.S. military dispositions there, even as he reaffirmed American treaty commitments to South Korea and Japan. Other U.S. officials explained what the hints meant.
A primary reason for pulling back from South Korea is that the 17,000 soldiers of the 2nd Infantry Division are needed elsewhere.
Associated Press
As Rumsfeld and military leaders have said repeatedly, U.S. forces are stretched thin. The U.S. Army has only 10 divisions and cannot afford to have one tied down in South Korea.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, right, with his South Korean counterpart, Cho Yong-kil, left, at a ceremony at the War Memorial on Monday welcoming him to Seoul.
Related to that need has been South Korea's refusal to send a division of 12,000 soldiers to secure a sector in Iraq, as requested by Washington. Instead, Seoul will post 3,000, to include the 700 already there.
Moreover, anti-Americanism is so widespread that moving U.S. troops out of Seoul and positions north of the capital will ease tensions only slightly. In a discussion of South and North Korea, an American officer said, only half jokingly, "Sometimes I wonder which one is really our adversary."
Despite superficial agreement, Presidents Bush and Roh Moo-hyun of South Korea disagree on how to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. The U.S. president advocates a firm approach, while the South Korean leader would be more accommodating.
Thus, during the next five years, the U.S. will shift most of its 7,000 headquarters staff out of Seoul. The 2nd Division will be moved to positions south of Seoul, near airfields, and prepare for swift strikes elsewhere in Asia. The 37,000 troops in South Korea today will be cut to an undecided number.
Why five years? The changes would be completed by the end of a second term for Bush, assuming he is re-elected next November.
In addition, the United Nations headquarters, in Korea since the war of 1950-53, probably will be disbanded. The Combined Forces Command, which gives the United States operational control over South Korean troops, will be dissolved and authority returned to the South Korean government. Those controls have long irritated nationalistic South Koreans.
Finally, the position of the four-star U.S. Army general, who today commands the U.N. mission, the Combined Forces Command and U.S. troops, will be abolished in favor of a lower-ranking commander. The four-star flag may be moved to the Army's Pacific command headquarters in Hawai'i, as many senior Army officers have advocated.
Rumsfeld's clues: On the way to Guam, he told the traveling press the Pentagon had been reviewing "our force deployments and stationings." He said: "We're now at a stage where we can begin discussing (that) with our allies and with Congress."
Aboard the Navy command ship Blue Ridge in Yokosuka, Japan, Rumsfeld said: "I think those of you who are serving in the Navy are going to see the responsibilities of the United States Navy increase generally, and increase particularly here."
Addressing Americans on Okinawa, the defense secretary said: "We've got to continue to pull down deployments." Some overseas deployments will continue, he said, but "once they do that job, they ought not to be there any longer than they need to be there." U.S. troops have been in South Korea since the Korean War.
At a news conference in Seoul, after meeting with the defense minister of South Korea, Cho Young-kil, Rumsfeld said: "I have assured the minister that any changes to U.S. military posture in Northeast Asia will be the product of the closest consultation with our key allies. Most important, they will result in increased U.S. capabilities in the region."
Rumsfeld said those adjustments "will reflect the new technologies that are available, the new capabilities, and they will strengthen our ability to deter and if necessary defeat any aggressions against allies such as South Korea."
After meeting with President Roh, Rumsfeld said the South Korean leader had asserted that his nation "could become more self-reliant. I agree with that." He said the same thing in a meeting with U.S. troops at Osan Air Base.
Translation: South Korea is capable of defending itself, and U.S. forces are needed elsewhere.
Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia.
