"People said Hawai'i is great," said Kamei while at Ala Moana Center during a four-day vacation.

His wife Koko said she was just having an "OK" time. She was tired from the flight and found the shopping "not exciting" because she has seen many of the stores on the Mainland.

Travelers like the Kameis are the kind of visitors that Hawai'i's tourism industry will need to work harder to attract and win over, and it will become a bigger challenge as the proportion of older Japanese grows.

Japan's aging population is changing the face of international travel and their influence could lead to further declines in Japanese tourism to Hawai'i — particularly if Japan's economy remains weak.

The burgeoning older population, the result of Japan's lower birth rates and higher life expectancy, will force long-term, industrywide adjustments for Hawai'i businesses that cater to Japanese visitors.

Different times

For years, tour operators, retailers and attractions in the Islands have marketed to younger, free-spending Japanese tourists who buy expensive, trendy items at brand name stores. But that's changing, experts say.

Some in the industry have already changed their practices in response to Japan's decadelong economic slump, which turned many visitors into value-conscious consumers. The bad economy coupled with Sept. 11 and the SARS epidemic cut visitor arrivals dramatically and they are only now inching toward a recovery.

But Japan's shifting demographics suggest a longer-term, more intractable change in the tourism market that even time may not fix.

Japan's baby boom, as is the case in the United States, means more international visitors will be older. Seniors, however, tend to travel less. Forecasts also show the Japanese population actually declining after 2006 because of low birth rates.

Japan experts warn that Hawai'i's tourism industry has to think about accommodating older travelers and, more importantly, prepare for a possible decline in Japanese tourism.

"All these upscale retail stores in Waikiki — they face declining demand over time," said James Mak, an economics professor at the University of Hawai'i. In the long term, "overall tourism from Japan to Hawai'i will slow dramatically so we need to be looking at other market areas."

Although some Japanese business people don't welcome the information, the population and demographic trends indicate a need "to adjust to the new Japanese population realities," Mak said. "I don't think we should think of it as depressing."

Some tourism business leaders are confident they will be able to adjust to the shifting market and even benefit from the aging Japanese population.

Some in denial

There are already signs of the aging population's impact on travel to Hawai'i. From 2000 to 2002, the percentage of Japanese travelers 60 and older increased from 8.3 percent to 12.7 percent, according to the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

But some businesses may be in denial and are putting off the difficult task of adjusting to older, more frugal visitors.

"Many firms are not adapting quick enough to the changes in the Japanese travel market," said Dave Erdman, president of local marketing firm PacRim Marketing Group Inc., which specializes in Japan marketing.

Structured specifically to cater to a particular type of Japanese customer, some businesses — high-end Waikiki stores as an example — will have trouble retooling. A store that has long counted on young Japanese women for its sales may not easily shift to a product line for older women or Mainland families.

"People are kind of comfortable going with past history, with the things that they're familiar with, so whatever the market of the past was, they tend to revise things very conservatively," said Chuck Gee, dean emeritus of the University of Hawai'i's School of Travel Industry Management. "You don't see a lot of radical changes."

Change will be essential to compete in the increasingly competitive worldwide tourism industry and not all in the tourism sector recognize the threat.

Older Japanese travelers constitute one of the groups the Hawai'i Tourism Authority aims to lure to the Islands. Marketing director Frank Haas called the seniors an "increasingly important target" that calls for a refined approach.

"The marketing message needs to go beyond the stereotypes of Hawai'i, and communicate culture, arts, wellness, nature and other aspects of Hawai'i that are particularly appealing to their age group," Haas said.

What older visitors want

Some of Hawai'i's competitors have more readily caught on to the shifting winds.

Australia has not seen the same decline in market share that Hawai'i has experienced because it's more appealing to older Japanese, said Sharon Weiner, DFS Group vice president and Hawai'i Tourism Authority board member.

"The older people like history — they're not so much interested in shopping," Mak said. "Hawai'i is not perceived as a destination which offers those amenities ... They're going to other places where there's richness in history, culture and the like."

Japanese in their 60s — called the "silver" market in Japan — are often more interested in walking, hiking, cultural activities and nature, Erdman said.

"They want an active vacation, but also need to build in a pace that fits them — just a little slower," he said.

Older people may also be more likely to travel to Hawai'i if it is more convenient for senior citizens, Mak said. That requires changes in tour packages and activities as well as transportation options and restroom accessibility.

Hawai'i's advantage is the Japanese clearly have an affinity for Hawai'i and feel comfortable here. And if Japan's economy stages a strong recovery, that could boost travel to Hawai'i.

But the signs of economic strength in Japan have been sporadic, and an older population with a smaller proportion of workers could retard economic growth.

"I think we are looking at a static situation," Gee said of the Islands' Japanese tourism trade. "It may shrink a little bit more.

"Will it come back? I don't think so."

Looking for the good times

Still, many Japanese tourism executives are optimistic and confident the industry will rebound to the high of 2 million-plus Japanese arrivals seen in the 1990s.

At the Coach store in Waikiki where about 90 percent of the business traffic is Japanese, assistant manager Ailene Tanaka has seen more and more older Japanese customers coming into the store in recent months. But still she expects Japanese tourism will return to the heyday of a decade ago.

"Life goes back to normal," she said.

Ron Howard, president of Paradise Cruise Ltd., whose Star of Honolulu cruises appeal to Japanese tourists, thinks Hawai'i's tourism will be strong, even over the long run.

"I think the levels will return and eventually surpass what we've seen in the past," Howard said.

"In our view the increasing population who's older or perhaps retired or could perhaps take time off, generally is a positive trend for us," Howard said. "For the long term I do think it's a far more competitive picture for us — say Hawai'i versus Europe."

Adapting to changes

Some businesses, responding to the decline in Japanese visitors following the terrorist attacks and the SARS-related drop in visitors, shifted their products and services to target Mainland visitors.

The tourism industry has benefited this year from a strong rebound in travel to Hawai'i by Mainlanders. Westbound travel has kept the market on keel even with the sharp decline in international travelers.

Though the Mainland market shows signs of growing further, depending too heavily on domestic travel may prove a mistake.

"It's the proverbial wisdom of not keeping all your eggs in one basket," Gee said.

A severe U.S. economic downturn or deterrents to travel from the Mainland could easily pummel the entire industry.

"The $64,000 question in my mind is: where will the replacement markets come from ... ? The other markets do not seem to have developed as quickly for one thing because the world has been in an economic slump for a long time."

China, although considered a huge potential market for Hawai'i in the future because of its large population and growing economy, remains a small slice of today's tourism primarily because of visa limitations.

What's more, Japan's aging population is a sign of what's to come globally. According to a 2001 report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the world's elderly population is projected by 2010 to grow by about 847,000 people each month.

"We need to think about how to cater to the tastes of an older market," Mak said.

"We tend to react to what's happened to us. We don't tend to look at 10, 20 years ahead and say, 'What do we do?' "