Posted on: Thursday, October 9, 2003
EDITORIAL
Now it is time for Arnold, the Conciliator
It would be a mistake to take the stunning election of Arnold Schwarzenegger as any direct signal of the direction American politics will take in the next couple of years.
Clearly, voter dissatisfaction with "politics as usual" and the failures of the insider political class had something to do with Schwarzenegger's victory. But the election hinged on far more subtle issues as well, including a sweeping economic downturn in California that should not have been left entirely at the feet of recalled Gov. Gray Davis.
Other factors include a shocking tripling of the automobile registration tax, a budget-balancing device that was put into place before Davis even took office in his second term last year.
They also include Schwarzenegger's stellar name recognition, an advantage that was of enormous help on a ballot that included more than a hundred names.
It's unlikely that Schwarzenegger's "hasta la vista, baby" style of campaigning will translate easily into other jurisdictions. But it does suggest that where there is substantial voter unhappiness, a candidate with the right combination of charisma and outsider credentials can capitalize successfully.
To some degree, it was this recipe that propelled Hawai'i Gov. Linda Lingle to victory over a tradition of Democratic leadership in this state.
California is celebrating right now: A hugely unpopular governor is gone, and a new leader whose promise as a political leader is almost completely unknown is in place. Tomorrow will come the hangover, as Schwarzenegger must cope with the horrors of a budget that is as much as $8 billion in the red and a state economy that is — at best — in the early stages of recovery.
One possibility, if Schwarzenegger plays it right, is that he might become a bridge figure in California's notoriously divisive political climate. The state legislature is deeply divided between very conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats, with few moderates in between.
Schwarzenegger's campaign suggests he might be able to play a moderating role. While he is a fiscal conservative (he pledges no new taxes), he has staked out moderate-to-liberal positions on social issues such as gay rights and a woman's right to choose.
That's the best hope for this surprise governor. If he can make a successful transition from his movie persona as a Terminator to a political persona as a mediator, California may end up being grateful for the choice it has made.
