Hawai'i bases unlikely to close
By William Cole
Advertiser Military Writer
Worried about the possibly bad economic effects of a round of military base closings in 2005, states with bases are hiring lobbyists, creating task forces and spending large sums of money to ward off Pentagon cost-cutters.
But not in Hawai'i.
With a renewed military emphasis on Asia and the Pacific, plans for an Army Stryker Brigade, new Air Force C-17 jets expected, and the possibility of an aircraft carrier battle group, the attitude here is one of confidence.
Military expansion, not contraction, is being contemplated here.
"We don't feel like we're as vulnerable as some of the other states," said Charlie Ota, vice president for military affairs with the Chamber of Commerce of Hawai'i.
Ota said the chamber keeps in close contact with Hawai'i's Washington delegation on the issue — a delegation that wields a degree of military clout.
Sen. Dan Inouye, D-Hawai'i, is ranking member of the Appropriations defense subcommittee. Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie serves on the House Armed Services Committee.
Abercrombie said that with the Washington delegation, chamber's military affairs council, and state adjutant general Maj. Gen. Robert G.F. Lee looking out for Hawai'i's military interests, "I think we pretty much have the situation covered. Maybe some of the other (states) don't have that kind of ongoing oversight and interest."
"In all honesty, if we wanted to spend money, I suppose we could," Abercrombie added, "but it would be money wasted."
A lot is at stake. Defense analyst Loren Thompson with the Lexington Institute reported that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had told associates he wanted to eliminate a quarter of base capacity in 2005 — more closings than the four previous rounds combined.
According to the General Accounting Office, the earlier rounds are saving the Pentagon $6.6 billion a year. But Rumsfeld spokesman Larry Di Rita disputed Thompson's estimate that more than 100 bases might be closed.
"Experts in and out of government have assessed some range of 20 to 25 percent excess capacity — which doesn't necessarily, and shouldn't" mean a particular percentage of bases will be closed, Di Rita said.
That hasn't quieted the worries. The four previous Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) rounds closed 29 major California bases and a number of smaller ones, costing the state $9.6 billion in annual spending, according to Copley News Service.
Hawai'i's Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism said defense spending here in 2000 totaled $3.47 billion.
The 1999 closure of Barbers Point Naval Air Station, meanwhile, left a military ghost town for which redevelopment plans remain unfulfilled.
Under the BRAC plan, the Defense Department would submit closure recommendations to the commission in 2005.
Lists of possible base closures have circulated as speculation has increased.
"There is no list, and when I say that, I mean there are lists out there, but I don't believe any of them represent the official Pentagon position," said Chris Hellman, an analyst with the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
The criteria to be used for base selection have not been decided, and are not expected to be until December, which means the services haven't been given any guidance yet, Hellman said.
Fort Shafter is the only Hawai'i base frequently mentioned as a possible candidate for closure.
"Fort Shafter, the Army doesn't want to give it up, but everybody who looks at it realizes they don't need it," said Carlton Meyer, a former Marine officer who runs the military online magazine G2mil.com.
Opened in 1907, the base serves as headquarters of U.S. Army Pacific. According to a 2002 Pentagon Base Structure Report, Fort Shafter had 591 acres and 3,002 military personnel.
"People keep talking about Fort Shafter," said the chamber's Ota. "Fort Shafter is a very difficult place to defend (from closure) because there are no combat (forces) there."
Moving U.S. Army Pacific headquarters to Schofield Barracks would cost millions, Ota added, "but that's a decision the Department of Defense has to make."
Fort Shafter officials could not be reached for comment.
Ota said O'ahu appears relatively safe from major base closings, with so many military additions planned or being considered.
"It appears that way," he said. "You talk about the Stryker Brigade coming over here, OK, so Schofield Barracks and its related bases you would think are fairly secure. You look at the (possible) carrier, that involves Pearl Harbor. You've got the C-17s coming in, and that's Hickam Air Force Base. And you've got the 3rd (Marine Expeditionary Force) up at Marine Corps Base Hawai'i — they are not going any place."
Marcus Corbin, an analyst with the Center for Defense Information, agreed.
"In general, it looks good (for Hawai'i) just at the broadest levels, because there's more attention to Asia, less to Europe," he said.
A San Diego BRAC report put out in March contemplates even more additions for Hawai'i, and suggests that five attack submarines based at Naval Base Point Loma could be moved to Pearl Harbor, where the majority of Pacific Fleet's attack submarines — 17 — are based.
Abercrombie, who believes the 2005 BRAC should be shelved until a U.S. force reorganization is completed, said Hawai'i's military bases are here for national security reasons, and that has to come first.
"If it (a base) meets a military necessity in the present context or with an eye on the future, then it won't come on any list. If there's some question about it, it will," Abercrombie said.
Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-5459.
