Few braving race for mayor
By Treena Shapiro
Advertiser Staff Writer
With Mayor Jeremy Harris stepping down next year because of term limits, the 2004 mayoral election could be a free-for-all attracting a wide range of candidates. But with less than a year to go before the primary, the field is still wide open.
Former Councilman Duke Bainum officially announced his candidacy Tuesday night, although he made it known two years ago that he would be running. The only other serious contender at this point is former Councilman Mufi Hannemann, who has made no secret of his intent to run for mayor after losing to Harris in 2000.
The two have collected hundreds of thousands of dollars for the campaign, and neither stopped campaigning for mayor after an anticipated 2002 special election failed to materialize because Harris decided he would not run for governor.
Former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, who resigned to run for governor in 1994 and has been trying to get re-elected since, said he would once again seek a return to Honolulu Hale in 2004. In his previous for mayor, in the 2000 election, he received only 12.3 percent of the vote in the primary.
Other potential candidates with high name recognition — from council member Ann Kobayashi to city Prosecutor Peter Carlisle to state Sen. Bob Hogue — say they don't plan to run or aren't sure.
"It may be that these two (Bainum and Hannemann) have such a head start in the race that they may carry it," said Neal Milner, University of Hawai'i political science professor.
Term limits force Harris to step aside next year after 10 years in office.
Without a governor's race, the Honolulu mayor's race could be the most interesting of the Sept. 18 primary. Since it is a nonpartisan contest, the top two vote-getters advance to the Nov. 2 general election.
Typically, when an incumbent leaves a seat, more challengers than usual jump in. "Those kinds of elections are always the kinds where you get a lot of candidates," Milner said.
Since statehood in 1959, the only mayor's race without an incumbent was in 1968, when Mayor Neal Blaisdell withdrew. Three City Council members went for the seat: Herman Lemke, Kekoa Kaapu and Frank Fasi, who defeated D.G. "Andy" Anderson in the general election.
This time, City Council members — most of whom just entered city government in January — have been relatively quiet about running for mayor.
Milner pointed out that Bainum and Hannemann are so far ahead of the pack in terms of campaigning and fund-raising that any serious candidate would have to start soon to catch up. According to their last campaign spending reports in July, Bainum's campaign had $415,000 cash on hand; Hannemann had about $600,000.
In his 2000 re-election bid, Harris spent $2.5 million, while Hannemann raised $1.2 million. Harris won the election outright in the primary with 49.7 percent of votes. Hannemann came in second with 34.7 percent.
While voters may be casting around for an alternative, Milner said there might be none. Gov. Linda Lingle, he pointed out, was the only politician with new ideas to enter the arena in 2002, and she faced a struggle.
"It's not like there's strong, bigger-thinking candidates on either side of the political fence," Milner said. "If Harris could run again, he'd beat them all. He's still the most convincing bigger thinker."
City Council Budget Chairwoman Kobayashi, who many have speculated might make a run for mayor, said fund-raising for an islandwide campaign would be a hard task now.
While Kobayashi said she would keep her options open, she is concentrating on re-election to the council in 2004.
She said former Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono, who jumped into the aborted mayor's race briefly last year, might still be interested. "We wouldn't both be running in the same race," Kobayashi said.
With a strong O'ahu campaign-base after her unsuccessful run for governor, Hirono would have an easier time than most trying to jump-start a campaign. But she is out of town until early November, according to her gubernatorial campaign manager Robert Toyofuku.
He said he had not talked with Hirono recently about the mayor's race. "She hasn't indicated to me either way whether she was intending to do anything or not," Toyofuku said.
Former state Sen. Matt Matsunaga, Hirono's running mate, said he had no plans to seek the mayor's seat. "I don't have any plans to run for office in 2004. But you never know — stuff happens," he said.
Former Honolulu Prosecutor Keith Kaneshiro, who also planned to run for mayor if there were a special election in 2002, said he would make a decision by the end of the year. "I'm not actively campaigning or fund-raising," he noted.
City Prosecutor Carlisle will not run for office next year, said his assistant Jim Fulton. While others have speculated that Carlisle might be considering the mayoral race, Fulton said, "absolutely not."
Former First Lady Vicky Cayetano also ended speculation that she might make her attempt at elected office. "I don't have any plans really for the 2004 election," she said.
But she did not rule out a future campaign. "One should never predict too far along," Cayetano said.
The Republicans are not currently pushing a candidate of their own. State party chairman Brennon Morioka said, "At this point, the focus of the state party is winning the majority in the state House and picking up more seats in the state Senate."
Reach Treena Shapiro at tshapiro@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.
Correction: Herman Lemke's name was incorrect in a previous version of this story.
