U.S. travel forecast is for 4.4% increase

By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer

Travel business nationwide is expected to increase 4.4 percent in 2004 as the economy recovers and more people begin to travel again — and Hawai'i is poised to benefit from the trend.

The Washington, D.C.-based Travel Industry Association of America forecasts that the increase will translate into $568 billion in traveler spending — up from $544 billion in 2003.

But it won't be until 2005 that spending is projected to surpass the 2000 record of $594 billion in traveler spending nationwide.

The industry's hardest hit sectors have been domestic business travel and international travel to the United States. Both declined this year but are projected to grow in 2004 and 2005.

Domestic leisure travel has grown slowly but steadily, according to the association.

Leisure travel nationwide is expected to increase by 3.2 percent in 2004 and nearly 2 percent in 2005.

"Leisure travel has been the bright star in a relatively dim travel constellation," said Suzanne Cook, senior vice president of research at the Travel Industry Association in a statement. "I think as time goes on, Americans will begin to go back to their more traditional travel patterns."

Hawai'i is also "looking very good for 2004," said Marsha Wienert, Gov. Linda Lingle's tourism liaison.

The most recent forecast from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism projects nearly 6.9 million visitors coming to Hawai'i in 2004, with tourist spending close to $11.4 billion . The estimates represent a 6.3 percent increase in visitor arrivals and 7.8 percent increase in visitor spending, which is better than the national forecast for expenditures.

"A large part of the growth in 2004 in our projections is based on an improvement in the Japanese situation," said state economist Pearl Imada Iboshi.

"We had several months (this year) where we had a double-digit decrease in Japanese arrivals due to SARS and we're now seeing Japanese arrivals numbers stabilizing."

Thus, a return to pre-Iraq war levels of Japanese tourism could mean year-over-year increases.

International travel to the United States is expected to increase 5 percent in 2004 and 2005, yielding more than 42 million international arrivals in 2004 and 44 million in 2005. Both are still shy of the 51 million arrivals in 2000 before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

International traveler spending is expected to increase 5.5 percent in 2004 and 8 percent in 2005, but that would still be below the $82 billion spent by foreign visitors in 2000.

Unlike the national forecasts, total visitor spending in Hawai'i for the year is expected to surpass 2000 levels this year as well as next. One reason is that Hawai'i is less dependent on the depressed business travel market and thus has had a stronger recovery than some Mainland destinations.

"Leisure travel has started to come back," said Noelani Wheeler, director of marketing at the O'ahu Visitors Bureau. "We anticipate seeing visitors come back and want to travel again — and what I mean is travel in general, not just getting in a car and going to see mom."

One of the factors driving an increase in travel to Hawai'i next year is the planned expansion of Norwegian Cruise Line ships designated for interisland cruises, Wheeler said. Norwegian is pushing for airlines to increase flights to Hawai'i to carry its customers here. If the airlines agree, it would mean more flights for other travelers.

Reach Kelly Yamanouchi at 535-2470, or at kyamanouchi@honoluluadvertiser.com.