Local retailers said they are confident consumers will spend more this season, echoing recent national forecasts that predict retail sales in November and December will rise around 5 percent over the generally disappointing holiday shopping season last year.

"We've bought for it," said Gill Berger, manager of Sears, Roebuck and Co. at Ala Moana Center. "It should certainly be better than last year."

How shoppers behave in the upcoming two months can make or break a retailer's year, and affect everything from employment to tax revenues that have a significant impact on the state's economy and its $18-billion-a-year retail industry.

Retailers typically ring up between 25 percent and 40 percent of their annual sales in the last two months of the year as people buy everything from holiday food and party supplies to gifts and decorations.

Patrick Breeden, chief executive officer of Royal Hawaiian Heritage Jewelry, is counting on an especially strong season. His business year-to-date is down 8 percent, but he's hoping that a 5 percent to 10 percent increase in the next two months over the same period last year will more than make up for the earlier slowness.

"It's going to be busy," he said. "We're expecting a very good holiday season."

Mo'ili'ili resident Roy Tomas said it feels like every holiday season he spends more and more, and this year he expects to spend about $1,000, in part because he has a new girlfriend. "I have a whole 'nother family to shop for," he said.

There are no solid local forecasts or sure-fire indicators to predict how Hawai'i consumers will spend money during the holidays, but national organizations are projecting that increases will be higher than they have been in the past few years.

Ohio-based consulting and market research firm Retail Forward Inc. predicts fourth-quarter retail sales will grow 4 percent this year, the highest since 2000.

The company said it expects sales will fall at mall-based department stores, and be modestly better for book and toy stores. Supercenters, warehouse clubs and dollar stores should post the strongest growth.

"The economy and retail sales are on the rebound, but the signs suggest that it will be an uneven rebound," said Frank Badillo, the firm's senior economist, in a statement.

The National Retail Federation forecasts a November-December retail sales rise of 5.7 percent, the highest since 1999. Last year, the trade association said the increase in holiday sales was 2.2 percent, the lowest in 10 years.

The trade association also surveyed consumers who said they plan to spend on average $672 this holiday season, compared with $649 last season.

Behind the anticipated increases are low interest rates, low inflation, tax breaks and a rising stock market — influences offset somewhat by a sluggish job market and geopolitical concerns.

More negative factors other analysts cite include no appearance of a much-hyped, must-have gift and low consumer confidence, which at the end of September was at its lowest level since March and lower than it was during the same time a year ago.

Still, Retail Federation officials said the economy is gaining momentum just in time for the holidays.

"Consumers have spent the last several years on an emotional and economic roller coaster," the association's president, Tracy Mullin, said in a statement. "Now, Americans appear to be ready to shop and ready to spend, just in time for the biggest shopping season of the year."

Badillo of Retail Forward, however, cautions that a lot of one-time economic drivers such as mortgage refinancing and tax breaks should lose steam before a job rebound can better sustain an economic recovery.

"The holiday season is far from a slam dunk for retailers," he said.

Carol Pregill, president of the Retail Merchants of Hawai'i trade association, said the Retail Federation's 5.7 percent sales growth projection is too optimistic in her view.

"But it's something to shoot for," she said. "Anything above 3.5 or 4 percent would be great."

Jonathan Kim, general manager of Windward Mall, where tenants typically do one-third of a year's business during November and December, guesses that mall sales could be 3 percent to 8 percent higher this year compared with last year, partly because of several new retailers and less vacant mall space.

"We look forward to a reasonably good Christmas," he said.

At Costco in Iwilei, store manager Robert Loomis said the season got off to a roaring start Oct. 1 when the discount warehouse started selling holiday decorations, gift wrapping materials and toys.

Sales in the store's "holiday department" are up 50 percent over last year, Loomis said, explaining that the 10-day West Coast dockworker strike last October hindered merchandise deliveries and holiday sales.

Loomis said that hot sellers so far are a set of scissors that make design pattern cuts and wire-edge ribbon.

Berger at Sears said the store has loaded up on electronic items such as LCD TVs and combo DVD/VCR players that manufacturers and retailers are making available at "value" prices.

According to a Retail Federation survey, a little more than 50 percent of consumers expect to receive books, CDs, DVDs, video games and apparel — the most anticipated gifts — followed by electronics, jewelry and home furnishings.

The survey said more consumers plan to start holiday shopping earlier, with 43 percent starting in October, up from 39 percent last year. Another 35 percent plan to start shopping in November and 22 percent said they will wait until December.

Discount stores are expected to be the busiest merchandise outlets visited this season, as 75 percent of consumers surveyed said they would shop at a discounter this season, followed by department stores (53 percent) specialty stores (37 percent) and online (36 percent).