Predicting the Emmys may take crystal ball

By Lynn Elber
Associated Press

LOS ANGELES — Tony Shalhoub, clear shelf space for your Emmy.

"I certainly know Ray Romano makes $1.8 million an episode, and obviously he's hot and would probably be the other main contender. But I got Tony," Georgian said this week, peering into the future.

And why not consult a psychic on the Emmys?

Given the unpredictability of the awards, her picks are at least as likely to be right as those of any so-called TV expert.

Last year, I scored 60 percent in my major-category picks on the Goldderby.com awards handicapping Web site, behind front-runner Ken Tucker (70 percent) of Entertainment Weekly. Georgian claims a 90 percent success rate, and she doesn't bother watching much outside of Court TV.

So how hard can this guessing game be, you ask?

Granted, "The West Wing" has won three consecutive best drama series awards. But rule changes enacted in 2000 to draw in more and younger TV academy voters have opened up the race and made it more uncertain.

Michael Chiklis of "The Shield" wasn't the only one wearing a stunned expression last year when he was honored as best actor in a drama, making FX the little channel that could field a major Emmy winner.

In a grave disservice, TV academy voters in 2002 gave "Six Feet Under" a single trophy, a directing award for series creator Alan Ball, although the series arrived covered in acclaim and the most nominations.

HBO's funeral home drama leads the pack again this year, with 16 nods. But will it or its stars fare any better?

Yes, says Georgian.

Not so fast, say I, eyeing a certain hungry mob family.

"The Sopranos" has yet to collect a best drama series award, although stars James Gandolfini and Edie Falco have been honored with acting trophies. The series, ineligible in 2002, is back and ready to rumble.

Without anything riding on the outcome — except my reputation as an Emmy maven — here are the nominees and my picks for the 55th annual prime-time Emmys, along with Georgian's.

Keep in mind that the acting nominees are judged by the single episode they've chosen to submit as their best, not for a season's work.

• DRAMA SERIES NOMINEES: "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation," CBS; "Six Feet Under," HBO; "The Sopranos," HBO; "24," Fox; "The West Wing," NBC.

Finally, "The Sopranos" and creator David Chase get what's coming to them. Voters will break with tradition and give the best drama trophy to a non-network series for the first time, acknowledging the show's daring and brilliance. The leading competitors, "Six Feet Under" and "The West Wing," faltered this season.

Georgian's prediction: "Six Feet Under."

• COMEDY SERIES NOMINEES: "Curb Your Enthusiasm," HBO; "Everybody Loves Raymond," CBS; "Friends," NBC; "Sex and the City," HBO; "Will & Grace," NBC.

The sour, petty and hilarious "Curb Your Enthusiasm" will become the second cable comedy (after "Sex and the City") to win the top prize. "Sex and the City" still has its charms but not the belly laughs of "Curb."

Georgian's prediction: "Sex and the City."

• ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES NOMINEES: Michael Chiklis, "The Shield," FX; James Gandolfini, "The Sopranos," HBO; Peter Krause, "Six Feet Under," HBO; Martin Sheen, "The West Wing," NBC; Kiefer Sutherland, "24," Fox.

Who's going to say no to Tony? Gandolfini won the last two times he was nominated for playing mobster Tony Soprano (in 2000 and 2001) and he's going to be boss again. Sheen, inexplicably overlooked every year, will miss out one more despite rising above a weak season.

Georgian's prediction: Michael Chiklis.

• ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES NOMINEES: Frances Conroy, "Six Feet Under," HBO; Edie Falco, "The Sopranos," HBO; Jennifer Garner, "Alias," ABC; Marg Helgenberger, "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation," CBS; Allison Janney, "The West Wing," NBC.

If there's a super-Emmy, Falco should get it. Playing a woman pushed to the marital breaking point in the finale, she was absolutely mesmerizing. Emmy voters adore Janney — she's received a best-actress award last year for what was really supporting work. But Falco will not be denied.

Georgian's prediction: Frances Conroy.

• ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES NOMINEES: Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm," HBO; Matt LeBlanc, "Friends," NBC; Bernie Mac, "The Bernie Mac Show," Fox; Eric McCormack, "Will & Grace," NBC; Ray Romano, "Everybody Loves Raymond," CBS; Tony Shalhoub, "Monk," USA.

Shalhoub is a delightful bundle of tics as a brilliant private detective nearly undone by his obsessive-compulsive disorder. A sitcom veteran ("Wings") and a fine dramatic actor, Shalhoub has the advantage of an hourlong series that combines comedy and drama. But, really, would Romano be up to the task?

Georgian's prediction: Tony Shalhoub.

• ACTRESS, COMEDY SERIES NOMINEES: Jennifer Aniston, "Friends," NBC; Patricia Heaton, "Everybody Loves Raymond," CBS; Jane Kaczmarek, "Malcolm in the Middle," Fox; Debra Messing, "Will & Grace," NBC; Sarah Jessica Parker, "Sex and the City," HBO.

This may be more of a should-happen than a will-happen: Kaczmarek deserves an Emmy for her performance that matches "Malcolm's" outlandish tone while keeping her character's humanity intact. She conveys wonderfully manic madness.

Georgian's prediction: Sarah Jessica Parker.

• VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES NOMINEES: "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart," Comedy Central; "Late Night With Conan O'Brien," NBC; "Late Show With David Letterman," CBS; "Saturday Night Live," NBC; "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno," NBC.

Heeeeere's Jonny — Jon Stewart, whose show is consistently winning, witty and thoroughly original. Emmy voters can prove they are, too, handing over the award to Stewart and his team.

Georgian's prediction: Leno's "Tonight."