Posted on: Thursday, September 25, 2003

Tourism authority lowers visitor target

By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer

The Hawai'i Tourism Authority is lowering its expectations for the number of visitors it is hoping will come to the Islands this year to 6.5 million from its original target of 6.7 million.

The tourism authority's original goal was set before the war with Iraq and SARS scare that prompted a sharp decline in tourism from Japan.

The biggest change in the drafted targets released yesterday shows the tourism authority expects more than 1.4 million Japanese visitors this year, down 5.6 percent from last year. Its previous target was for a 10 percent increase to 1.6 million from Japan.

Overall, however, the number of tourists expected by the tourism authority represents a 1.9 percent increase over last year.

The authority's estimates nearly match this year's forecast by the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, which projects about 6.5 million visitors will arrive in the Islands.

But the two agencies disagree over how well the industry will recover by next year.

DBEDT expects nearly 6.9 million visitors in 2004 and tourism expenditures close to $11.4 billion. The tourism authority has a lower target of nearly 6.7 million visitors spending $11.3 billion next year.

Typically, the tourism authority's targets are set higher than forecasts because it takes into account the effort by marketers to increase travel to Hawai'i.

However, the authority does not expect a recovery will materialize quickly, particularly since Japan Airlines and Northwest Airlines have reduced flights from Japan.

"Because of the JAL and Northwest Airlines cutbacks we're just being a little more conservative with targets," said Frank Haas, the tourism authority's marketing director. The figures assume Japanese arrivals will not increase until late spring next year.

The good news is that tourism from the Mainland is expected to remain strong, and the tourism authority is aiming to help bring 4.2 million from the Mainland this year, up 3.8 percent from last year. Next year the hope is 4.3 million will arrive from the Mainland.

And because Japanese arrivals are expected to be low this year, even the tourism authority's more conservative target amounts to a 10.4 percent increase in Japanese arrivals in 2004 over this year.

The tourism authority plans to meet with industry representatives to discuss the targets and may further revise them.

Also yesterday, the tourism authority approved $475,000 for six sporting events in 2004:

• Hawaiian International Billfish Tournament, $25,000;

• Maui Jim Hawaii Marlin Tournament Series, $130,000;

• Maui Marathon, $40,000;

• Ironman Triathlon World Championship, $200,000;

• Xcel Pro Surf Contest, $20,000;

• EA Sports Maui Invitational, $60,000.

Another $100,000 was left in the budget for other sporting events.

Reach Kelly Yamanouchi at 535-2470 or at kyamanouchi@honoluluadvertiser.com.