The jobs amounted to a 2 percent gain over the year through August, making the state one of the brighter spots for job creation.

The opposite was the case during much of the 1990s, when the national economy expanded and Hawai'i's tread water.

Now, economists expect Hawai'i's job ranks to grow more than 2 percent this year, between 1.3 percent and 2 percent next year, and 1.3 percent in 2005.

Starbucks and Jamba Juice, for example, have hired 730 more people this year to support 11 new stores, said Greg Meier, president of Coffee Partners Hawai'i, which holds the rights to the two chains in the state and plans to open six more stores by year's end.

"Our biggest request is 'When are you coming to our neighborhood?' " Meier said.

Since July 2002, AT&T Hawai'i has added 150 people to its call center, and the company is in the process of hiring 100 more.

AT&T Hawai'i uses its time zone to its advantage: Hawai'i staff can take over customer service calls when the East Coast is asleep.

"We realized that we're sitting on a gold mine," said Jackie Ingamells, AT&T Hawai'i's managing director. "Before that, we were focused on the Hawai'i market."

Best in years

If the upbeat job forecasts for this year, next year and 2005 hold true, it would mark the first three-year period of strong job growth since 1990-92. Those years were followed by a lengthy stagnant period in which the Japanese economy faltered and real estate values declined.

Since then, "we haven't had a lot of years of strong job growth," said Byron Gangnes, associate professor of economics with the University of Hawai'i Economic Research Organization.

But Gangnes said the state has a different job market now.

The consensus among economists is that Hawai'i's strong job market will continue at least through next year, with the UH Economic Research Organization expecting non-farm payroll jobs to rise 2.3 percent this year and 2 percent next year.

That's slightly more optimistic than forecasts by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, which recently raised its estimate for total job growth in the state from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent this year. The department's forecast, which includes farm jobs, predicts job growth of 1.3 percent for next year and for 2005.

"Although the numbers are different, the direction is the same," said Khem Sharma, an economist at the department. "The question is how long can this continue."

The answer will depend in large part on how quickly the cyclical construction and real estate markets cool off.

Job growth will depend as well on whether visitor arrivals — hurt by war, terrorism and SARS — return solidly to historical highs, experts said.

Expanding employment also is tied to the new jobs promised by massive military housing privatization projects scheduled over the next four years and plans by Norwegian Cruise Lines to sail three cruise ships in Hawai'i by 2007.

Economists at UH and the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism have not yet factored these potential jobs into their forecasts.

But on the street, job-seekers statewide know they are facing one of the stronger job markets in more than a decade.

Krislyn Foster, 28, hopes that when graduates from nursing school this December, she can land a good-paying job after juggling three smaller jobs for years.

"I can't juggle jobs anymore," Foster said.

Incomes rising

In Hawai'i, it's not just the number of jobs that is increasing, but pay as well. Personal income statewide rose by 5.5 percent in the first quarter compared with the same period a year ago, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real personal income, which is adjusted for inflation, is expected to rise 3.6 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2004, according to the UH Economic Research Organization. The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism foresees real personal income rising 2.7 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year.

The jobs should be created where growth is occurring now, economists said.

In August, employment opportunities expanded in construction and related businesses, educational and health services, leisure and hospitality, the trades, and transportation and utility sectors.

Job opportunities also continued to arise in areas that exhibited strong growth even through the recent lean years. Those areas include healthcare and other business services like independent contractors, Gangnes said.

The growth in these primarily service-oriented jobs highlights some of the structural differences between Hawai'i's economy and that of the rest of the nation, Gangnes said, and may help explain the resiliency that the economy is displaying.

For example, Hawai'i has a relatively small number of manufacturing and technology jobs — two sectors that remain in the doldrums on the Mainland.

However, Hawai'i isn't immune from job cuts, as most recently illustrated by Verizon Hawai'i's announcement to offer 550 managers and non-union employees voluntary separation packages.

Still, experts said such losses likely will have little impact on the overall economy, which during August posted a jobless rate of 4.4 percent versus the national rate of 6 percent.

For those who study Hawai'i's economy, the question is not whether the strength in construction and real estate will taper off, but by how much and over what time period.

Some economists draw a distinction between the booming real estate market of the 1980s and today's hot housing market.

Unlike the real estate bubble of the 1980s, when values were inflated in part by foreign investment, today's market is driven by Hawai'i and Mainland buyers, and their purchases are fueled by increases in personal income, job growth and low interest rates, Gangnes said.

"If you look at the current situation, a lot of this is being done by domestic investment," he said. "We don't have a lot of investment in upscale real estate that we had in the '80s."

State remains vulnerable

Interest rates eventually will rise, and that could dampen activity in construction and real estate.

Regardless of what happens in the Hawai'i market, the state remains vulnerable to geopolitical events that potentially could derail tourism, Sharma said.

Any Sept.11-like event could quickly reverse the rosy job outlook.

One need only to look back to the year 2000, when the number of jobs in the state rose 3 percent, only to fall to 0.3 percent the next year, partly because of the terrorist attacks.

"Our forecasts are always driven by visitor arrivals," Sharma said. "That's the variable."