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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 12:16 p.m., Tuesday, September 30, 2003

Share prices fall on consumer sentiment

Hawai'i Stocks
Updated Market Chart

By Amy Baldwin
Associated Press

NEW YORK — Disappointing reports on consumer confidence and business activity in the Midwest sent stocks back into a downward slide today, leaving Wall Street with a loss for September. But the market nonetheless ended a solid third quarter, with the Nasdaq composite index rising 10 percent for its fourth straight quarterly gain.

The Dow Jones industrials and Standard & Poor’s 500 index each scored a second consecutive quarterly advance.

Still, today was the fourth down day for the market out of the last five.

"Any negative news corporate or economic is just another excuse to take profits. ... We have had a dramatic move up in almost every sector of the market," said Brian Bush, director of equity research at Stephens Inc. in Little Rock, Ark.

Investors have been increasingly uneasy about stock prices, fearing they’ve climbed too high too, too fast given the still fragile economic recovery. Wall Street interpreted today’s reports as confirming its fears about the economy.

"I wouldn’t say there’s skepticism, but concern about (stock) prices today. ... I think investors at the margin are saying, ’Maybe I should take some of those profits,"’ said Jack Caffrey, equities strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

The Dow closed today down 105.18, or 1.1 percent, at 9,275.06, according to preliminary calculations. The loss more than erased yesterday’s gain of 67.16.

The market’s other gauges were also sharply lower. The Nasdaq dropped 37.62, or 2.1 percent, to 1,786.94. The S&P fell 10.61, or 1.1 percent, to 995.97.

Analysts said the market’s declines were owed in part to the end of the quarter. While institutional investors, including mutual fund managers, often buy stocks at the end of the quarter to dress up their portfolios, they also sell to lock in gains. Selling often occurs at the end of the third quarter in particular because mutual funds end their fiscal year at the end of October.

"The last thing you want to do is give back your gains before you finish out the year," Bush said.

Today’s economic news also contributed to the market’s losses.

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence, which had rebounded in August, took a bigger than expected dive in September because of a sluggish job market. The group’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 76.8, a five-point decrease from the revised 81.7 registered in August. The reading was also well below the 80.5 economists had predicted.

Soon after, the Purchasing Management Association of Chicago said its index of area business activity fell to 51.2 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis from 58.9 in August. Economists were expecting a much smaller decrease to 57.0. The Chicago index is considered a harbinger of the national Institute for Supply Management’s index, to be released tomorrow.

Still, a reading above 50 indicates business is growing, and September marked the fifth straight month that the midwestern business barometer rose.

Declining issues narrowly outnumbered advancers on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume totaled 1.50 billion shares, up from 1.32 billion yesterday.