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The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted on: Sunday, April 4, 2004

No hard and fast rules in good financial advice

Analysis:
Proceed with caution in following some of Money magazine's investment tips.

By Warren Boroson
Gannett News Service

A lively refresher course on the whole world of investing is offered in the March issue of Money magazine via an article titled "101 things every investor should know!" It's worth reading.

But I disagree with some of its 101 things.

Thing No. 20, for instance. "When you buy a stock, you think it'll be a winner. But you're buying it from someone who's happy to let it go."

There are various reasons why sellers of that stock are not happy to let it go and are, in fact, weeping bitter tears. Beginning with:

• They need money. To pay taxes, to pay college tuition, to buy tickets to Yankees-Red Sox games — who knows why?

• They made an astronomical profit on that stock and want to lock in their gain. So, with a heavy heart, they sell.

• They have too much of that particular stock in their portfolio. (See Thing No. 44 ["Don't put more than 10 percent of your stock money into one company"].)

• They have too much exposure to the industry in which that stock resides — technology, healthcare, whatever. So they are lightening up.

• They may have a better investment in mind and need cash. For example, they may know of a miraculously inexpensive house.

• They may have a huge loss on that stock and feel deep in their bones that it's now wonderfully undervalued. But they know of a virtually identical stock that's wonderfully undervalued. If they sell stock A, they can get a tax deduction; and by buying B, they can be sort of back where they started. Eating their cake and having it.

• They may be approaching advanced age and feel they should reduce their exposure to the stock market and beef up their fixed-income investments.

Then there is Money's 50th, 51st and 52nd things — "Don't unload a stock just because it has fallen or because the market is in a slump."

Valid reasons to get out, according to Money, are: A. Something important about a company has changed. B. Your original assessment was clearly wrong. C. The stock has risen above its actual worth or now makes up too vast a chunk of your portfolio.

There are other reasons why smart people might sell a stock. beginning with:

• The stock has fallen dramatically and they have no idea why. As Susan Byrne of Gabelli Westwood funds says, if she owns a stock that is behaving extraordinarily badly, she figures that other people know something she doesn't — and she dumps it.

• The stock has fallen dramatically, and you're not sure whether to keep it or not. It's a close call. Michael Price, formerly of the Franklin Mutual Series, says he may sell a loser "just to clear my head."

• There are so many powerful psychological reasons why people stubbornly hold on to their losers that it's a good idea, when in doubt, to just throw them out.

But a good number of Money's 101 things are right on the money, so to speak, especially No. 6: "Over the long term, stocks have returned more than bonds, and bonds more than cash. That doesn't mean they always will."

I enjoyed No. 46: "Most big mergers don't benefit investors. Experience shows that it doesn't pay to invest in acquisitions. The reason: Most companies overpay when they buy other companies, negating any benefit from 'synergies.' "