Bainum leads race for mayor, poll finds
| • | Poll results (open in new window): Favorable/unfavorable opinion of mayoral candidates |
By Johnny Brannon
Advertiser Staff Writer
Five months before the Sept. 18 primary election, Duke Bainum is leading Mufi Hannemann in the race for Honolulu mayor, according to The Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll.
The query of 315 O'ahu registered voters found that 44 percent favored Bainum while 35 percent would vote for Hannemann if the election were held immediately.
The poll by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu also found that 12 percent supported former Mayor Frank Fasi, and that just 9 percent were undecided if the only candidates were Bainum, Fasi and Hannemann.
The results are the first to be publicly disclosed for the 2004 mayor's race. They are unusual in that so many voters have strong opinions this early in the election season, analysts said.
"People are relatively clear on who they're going to vote for," said Ward Research president Rebecca Ward.
The poll's margin of error is 5.5 percentage points, meaning a survey of all O'ahu registered voters would not likely produce a result more than
5.5 percentage points above or below the poll's findings. It also means that Bainum's support could range from 38.5 percent to 49.5 percent while Hannemann's could range from 29.5 percent to 40.5 percent.
The candidates still have a long battle in front of them, and most observers say it's far too early to accurately predict who will win.
The poll was conducted March 24 to 27. If the results prove true on Election Day, Fasi could split the vote enough to deny the others the required victory margin of 50 percent plus one vote.
That would force a run-off between the top two vote getters in the Nov. 2 general election. Fasi's fans and any voters who remain undecided could tip the final tally in either direction.
Familiarity with candidates
Waimalu resident Allan San Juan is among those whose vote is still up for grabs. The 57-year-old welding supply business owner said he's familiar with all the candidates, but that the mayor's race hasn't generated much excitement so far.
"Maybe a few months from now, when it heats up more, I'll have more of an opinion," he said.
San Juan said he's unlikely to support Fasi because he's previously served as mayor and someone new should have the chance. "They say the devil you know is better than the one you don't know, but I think he's a little old already," San Juan said.
Fasi is 83.
Morris Tyson, a 47-year-old computer instructor from 'Ewa Beach, also said it's too early to make a decision.
"I haven't heard very much yet," he said. "I don't know anybody who's really talking about it."
Fredda Stroup, a 64-year-old real estate agent from Waimanalo, said she needs to closely compare the candidates' platforms before making any decision. "I haven't thought about it very much yet," she said.
'Aiea resident Eleanor Nitta said she solidly supported Bainum. "I think Frank Fasi has been great for the city but may be a little too old to be effective," the 61-year-old retiree said. "I think Duke Bainum is representing change and is going to bring some honesty to the whole city system."
Bainum's campaign has spent thousands of dollars to broadcast that message to voters in recent months, and the advertising strategy appears to be paying off.
Hannemann's campaign has had a much lower profile, but attracts solid support from many voters familiar with him.
Glen Okura, a 44-year-old school cafeteria worker from Kaimuki, said Hannemann's platform of focusing on basic city services sounds attractive and reasonable.
"I've heard all of them, and I kind of like Mufi Hannemann the best," Okura said. "I like Fasi's style, too, but let's give Mufi a chance to see what he can change."
Bainum said he was very pleased that the poll found him ahead of the others, but that he definitely won't slow down his campaign.
"Clearly, the election is a long way off, but those are very encouraging numbers and we'll continue to build on them," Bainum said.
Hannemann said he's not worried by the poll results, but is surprised that Bainum isn't further ahead because of his aggressive advertising.
"He's dominating the airwaves, and we can't spend that kind of money because we don't have it," Hannemann said.
He said he believes the numbers will change as the candidates publicly appear side-by-side closer to Election Day, and voters can compare them.
"Advertising gives only one side of the story," Hannemann said.
Close race expected
University of Hawai'i political-science professor Neal Milner said it's very significant that so few voters appear to be undecided. Fasi may continue to draw a small core of strong support, but the real contest is clearly between former City Council members Bainum and Hannemann, Milner said.
"You have two formidable, well-known candidates here who are, considering the fluidity of polls at this stage, in a pretty close contest, and people are already making up their minds between one or the other without much of a problem," he said.
That's likely to discourage any additional serious candidates from jumping into the race, he said.
When voters were asked if they had a generally favorable opinion of each candidate, the poll found Bainum and Hannemann neck-and-neck. Fifty-three percent said they generally liked Hannemann and 51 percent had a favorable opinion of Bainum.
The poll found that more voters are unfamiliar with Bainum, but that more have an unfavorable opinion of Hannemann.
Eighteen percent said they generally didn't like Bainum and 31 percent said they weren't familiar enough with him. Twenty-nine percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of Hannemann and 18 percent weren't familiar enough.
It may be easier for Bainum to increase his visibility and introduce himself to voters than for Hannemann to change negative opinions, but it's still early in the race, Milner said.
Fasi had the highest negative rating, with 64 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion of the former mayor, who served from 1968 to 1980 and from 1984 to 1994.
Fasi said he doesn't believe the poll results, and that it's too early in the race to make any serious bets.
"Polls are polls, and I don't give them much substance or credence," he said. "The die hasn't been cast yet."
Fasi said he plans to make a strong and serious run, and believes he'll attract more support when he begins an aggressive advertising campaign later in the race.
Reach Johnny Brannon at jbrannon@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.
