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Posted at 1:10 p.m., Wednesday, August 4, 2004

Investors mull oil prices as market closes mixed

Hawai'i Stocks
Updated Market Chart

By Michael J. Martinez
Associated Press

NEW YORK — Wall Street waffled through an erratic session today, closing mixed as investors nervously watched oil prices but also allowed themselves to be encouraged by good economic news.

Stocks moved in the opposite direction from oil prices for much of the day, declining until early afternoon as crude climbed to $44.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. As oil fell below $43 on the way to a $42.83 close, Wall Street managed a late-session rally — but that advance quickly fizzled.

Still, the market's tone kept analysts and traders optimistic about the market's long-term prospects, though many cautioned that the typical summer doldrums would likely prevent a major rally this month.

"Yes, we have oil prices rising, but I think overall, we're starting to see some settling down in the market," said Bill Groenveld, head trader for vFinance Investments. "All the unknowns that drove the market down in July are starting to pan themselves out. There may be a malaise in the marketplace for a while, but it's better than uncertainty."

Stocks also received a boost from two key economic reports. Factory orders rose 0.7 percent in June, more than Wall Street expected. And the Institute of Supply Management's service sector index for June rose more than economists had forecast.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 6.27, or 0.1 percent, to 10,126.51.

Broader stock indicators were narrowly lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 1.06, or 0.1 percent, at 1,098.63, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 4.36, or 0.2 percent, to 1,855.06.

Although the rally lost wind at the end of the session, the Dow enjoyed its fourth late-day rally in the last six sessions.

Oil prices remain a concern, because higher fuel costs could trickle down to the consumer as food producers and major retailers will pay a higher cost in shipping.

"Combine (higher oil prices) with a slowdown in consumer spending, that makes it very hard for anyone to get into the market right now," said Neil Massa, an equity trader at John Hancock Funds.

But today's economic figures were an encouraging sign that the economy's spring "soft spot" may not have lasted. Factory orders for June were higher than the 0.4 rise in May. And orders for durable goods rose 0.9 percent in June, up from a 0.9 percent decline in May, the Commerce Department said.

A key test for the economy and the markets will come Friday as the government releases the latest data on job creation. Next Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting will also be closely watched for signs that the Fed might back off on raising interest rates aggressively.

Declining issues barely outnumbered advancers on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume was light.