Posted on: Sunday, August 22, 2004

Weakened storm apt to miss Big Island

By Will Hoover
Advertiser Staff Writer

Contrary to earlier predictions, Tropical Storm Estelle is not expected to reach hurricane strength, the National Weather Service reported last night.

The agency said the storm should miss the Big Island.

Forecasters had described Estelle as a compact cyclone with a well-organized central core and thus predicted on Friday that it would have winds exceeding 74 mph — hurricane-force velocity.

"It never got as strong as was predicted by Miami, and then we held on to that prediction because we didn't see any reason to discard it," National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Farrell said yesterday. Now, because of its weakened condition, "it will probably never reach hurricane strength," he said.

As of 5 p.m. yesterday, the storm had moved to 905 miles east/southeast of Hilo at 16.0 degrees north latitude and 141.9 degrees west longitude. The storm was traveling at 8 mph toward the northwest.

By today the storm was expected to turn toward the west, and eventually to the west/southwest.

"Evidently the system is weakening and has been sheared — the top is coming off it — so it looks like it will pass south of the Big Island," said Farrell.