Posted on: Sunday, August 29, 2004
THE RISING EAST
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By Richard Halloran
An American diplomat in Nepal's capital, Katmandu, asked 10 years ago to assess the strategic importance of this small nation nestled in the Himalayas between China and India, made a round shape with his thumb and forefinger and said: "Zero. None."
Today, that has changed. As a Nepali analyst says, a spreading Maoist insurgency "is no longer a distant thunder in the hills." Terrorists who take their name from the Chinese revolutionary Mao Zedong have killed 9,000 to 10,000 people in eight years, operate in 73 of Nepal's 75 districts, and have just ended a one-month blockade that threatened to strangle the capital.
This insurgency has started to attract attention elsewhere in Asia and in America, despite the preoccupation with the troubles in Iraq. The new U.S. ambassador to Nepal, James Moriarty, explained why after his arrival last month.
"Through extortion, torture, murder, bombings and abductions," he said, "the Maoists have created a reign of terror throughout the country.
"If Nepal slips into anarchy and chaos," he said, "it would represent a threat to the stability of South Asia and to vital U.S. interests."
Advertiser library photo • April 2004 "This possibility is made more acute by Maoist statements expressing common cause with other South Asian extremist groups sharing similarly violent agendas," the official concluded. Indian press reports suggest that the insurgency has begun to spill over into India's northern states, where similar extremists have been operating.
The Maoists, believed to be about 6,000 strong, are led by an urban planner turned political activist and propagandist, Baburam Bhattrai, and a shadowy figure, Pushapa Kamal Dahal, whose nom de guerre is Prachandra. He seems to be the battle commander.
A senior Indian counter-insurgency officer, Vinay Kumar Singh, noted that guerrilla leaders in Nepal and India had talked about a "red corridor" stretching from Nepal into the Indian states of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.
"We all laughed 10 years ago at the 'red corridor,' " he said. "Nobody is laughing any more."
Besides their violent tactics, the Maoists have sought to appeal to the 42 percent of the 27 million Nepalis who live in poverty. In Nepal, more than 40 percent are unemployed. To spark economic development, Moriarty noted, U.S. economic aid has risen from $24 million in 2003 to $40 million in 2004.
The United States has designated the Maoists a terrorist group and frozen whatever assets they might have in America, a move that was probably more symbolic than practical. The State Department has occasionally issued statements condemning specific bombings, also more symbolic than effective.
Moriarty and other senior U.S. officials, including President Bush, have pleaded with King Gyanendra, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Nepal's splintered opposition parties, all of which have been feuding with each other, to pull together.
The Americans have emphasized that the government of Nepal must improve its record on human rights to win public support.
In a message to the prime minister when he took office this month, Bush noted dryly: "There is much work to be done."
While Indians have become alarmed by the troubles in their neighbor to the north, the Chinese on the other side of the Himalayas have resisted the temptation to aid the insurgents, despite their allegiance to the teachings of Mao and China's gradually increasing rivalry with India.
Indeed, the Chinese Communist Party does not care for the term "Maoist" and prefers to call the insurgents "anti-government forces." Further, the Chinese have condemned the terrorist tactics of the Maoists and offered moral backing to the Nepali government in its struggle against the rebels.
The Maoists have contended that left-wing organizations elsewhere in South Asia must join them to "defeat the Indian hegemonists." And because every self-respecting terrorist must take an anti-American stance, the Maoists declare: "The Indian ruling class has knelt down before U.S. imperialism and has opened the door for the merciless exploitation of the people of this region."
Honolulu-based Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia.
Moriarty did not elaborate, but other officials did. "Nepal could quite easily turn into a failed state, a potential haven for terrorists like that which we have transformed in Afghanistan," said one. When the Taliban extremists controlled Afghanistan, they provided a refuge for Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorists.
Soldiers from the Maoist Army 2nd Battalion are among what's believed to be a 6,000-strong force that has killed up to 10,000 people in eight years, creating "a reign of terror" throughout Nepal.
In addition, the United States has provided $22 million over three years to equip and train the Nepal army for counter-insurgency operations against the Maoists. Small U.S. training teams deploy to Nepal two or three times a year, which also gives them a chance to train at high altitudes.
