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Posted at 12:02 p.m., Friday, December 10, 2004

Inflation concerns cause stocks to fall

Hawai'i Stocks
Updated Market Chart

Associated Press

NEW YORK — Investors' concerns over the economy and potential inflation outweighed a sharp drop in oil prices, sending stocks slightly lower today. All three major indexes were lower for the week as Wall Street's customary year-end rally stalled.

Wall Street was rattled somewhat by the Labor Department's latest Producer Price Index report, which measures wholesale prices. The PPI rose 0.5 percent in November, far less than October's 1.7 percent rise, but still a troublesome indicator of possible inflation.

The sour mood overshadowed a surprising drop in crude oil futures, which came after OPEC agreed to cut oil production by 1 million barrels per day. The move was designed to keep prices steady, although even with today's drop, they remain at historically high levels. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $40.71, down $1.82, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"A lot of the run-up in oil was speculation, and some of that froth has been taken out," said Chris Wiles, senior director of large cap growth and core equity investment for the Armada Funds. "And the reaction to the OPEC moves shows that OPEC is just not the driving force that they used to be. That's good for our economy."

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones Industrial average fell 9.60, or 0.09 percent, to 10,543.22.

Broader stock indicators narrowly lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 1.24, or 0.1 percent, at 1,188.00, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 0.94, or 0.04 percent, to 2,128.07.

The week's trading was marked by wide swings in oil prices, a mix of economic data, and a great deal of investor uncertainty that left stocks lower. For the week, the Dow fell 0.46 percent, the S&P dropped 0.27 percent and the Nasdaq was down 0.93 percent.

The University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment index reading helped keep the market's losses minimal, as the index rose to 95.7 from 92.8 in November. Economists had expected a reading of 93.2, and the index's gains bode well for increased holiday spending this month.

"Overall, this headline PPI number came in a lot higher than expected, but then we got better sentiment than expected," said Scott Wren, equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons. "All told, this news is kind of a wash, but it gives us the chance to move a little higher later on."

The wholesale report convinced many investors that the Federal Reserve would move the nation's benchmark interest rate higher by a quarter percentage point at its meeting on Tuesday. Rates currently stand at 2 percent, but with a weak dollar, rising energy costs and climbing wholesale prices, a rate hike — and future moves higher — are considered very likely.

The rise in wholesale prices has not yet filtered down to consumers to any great degree, which has left many companies with tighter margins and the prospects of reduced growth, or even modest downsizing.