Posted on: Sunday, December 26, 2004
Safety issue may alter pill-popping U.S. culture
By Michael S. Rosenwald
Washington Post
WASHINGTON — Safety questions about popular pain-killing medications may give people pause over the nation's pill-popping culture, analysts say, and that would give the beleaguered drug industry something else to worry about.
The tendency to take prescription pills for everyday aches and pains, shyness, allergies, impotence and other "lifestyle" concerns have helped prop up pharmaceutical company revenue. Now analysts say safety concerns may prompt a consumer backlash that could hurt business.
"We are entering a period of caution and concern, and a lot of people will take a second look at the excessive use of so-called lifestyle medicines," said Steven Findlay, a healthcare analyst at Consumers Union.
In September, Merck & Co. pulled its painkiller Vioxx off the market after studies found it increased the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Two weeks ago, Pfizer Inc. said high doses of its painkiller Celebrex could more than double the risk of heart attacks. And last week, federal health officials said naproxen, sold over the counter as Aleve, might increase the risk of heart attack or stroke.
Some also worry that antidepressants pose an increased risk of suicide among children and teenagers.
"When the average consumer sees the headlines and the news blitz on one drug after another, you would think that the average person is going to become more and more concerned," said Herman Saftlas, a pharmaceutical analyst for Standard & Poor's.
Members of Congress have expressed concern over the safety problems, and pressure is mounting on the Food and Drug Administration to strengthen its safety examination of drugs. Analysts predicted that will lead to lengthier, more expensive testing of new drugs.
Add to that the pharmaceutical companies' other problems — including a dwindling pipe-
line of new drugs in development and a number of older drugs losing patent protection — and the industry's growth prospects appear dim, analysts said.
"I think it's a tough outlook for them going forward," said David Moskowitz, managing director of health care research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc.
Gone are the days of 13 percent and 14 percent annual revenue growth that drug companies enjoyed in the 1990s. Revenue growth has fallen to 9 percent or 10 percent in recent years and is likely to fall further, to 7 percent or 8 percent annually, according to Saftlas of Standard & Poor's.
"The growth engines have all slowed," Saftlas said.
Instead of investing heavily in "me too" drugs that barely differ from existing products and marketing them with expensive TV commercials, Moskowitz said drug companies will be under pressure to develop drugs for unmet medical needs.
However, that approach won't mean big profits, Moskowitz said, unless the companies develop a variety of successful new medicines, not just one or two.
But Findlay thinks consumer caution over lifestyle drugs will subside after a time.
"We've come to rely on many of our medicines because we are less willing to change our lifestyles in ways that would lower our risks to some diseases."
