THE RISING EAST
Posture of Taiwan cannot be ignored
By Richard Halloran
The fate of Taiwan has become a question that won't go away, and an issue no political leader in Japan, China, the United States or any place else wants to confront. Today, the Taiwan question threatens to spiral out of control, and a miscalculation could plunge East Asia into war.
Advertiser library photo • March 17, 2000
In the past eight years, President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has made it transparently clear he intends to lead his island nation into full independence as a sovereign nation with equal standing to every other country, including China, which claims Taiwan as a province.
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian, seen here during his 2000 campaign, has made it clear he is ready to codify Taiwan's independence from China. Neither China nor the United States seems to know how to respond.
At the same time, President Chen is a shrewd politician trying to avoid arousing the wrath of China and to gain international support, particularly from the United States and Japan, by nudging rather than pushing
Taiwan toward independence.
It is equally clear that leaders in China, Japan and the United States don't know what to do about the Taiwan question. The Chinese thunder and fume, but don't have the military muscle to back up their threats of capturing Taiwan by force. The Japanese mostly try to ignore the whole thing.
The Americans seek to maintain a shaky status quo, but beyond that have no long-term policy. President George W. Bush did not even mention China or Taiwan in his State of the Union address, although it was supposedly a major policy speech.
When Chen was still mayor, I asked him in Taipei whether he planned to conduct a referendum, as was then rumored, on declaring formal independence. He said it was not necessary, because Taiwan already was a sovereign nation.
He added, however, that if certain big powers — the United States and Japan — abandoned Taiwan, "then we will hold a referendum on independence and we will win."
Chen was defeated for re-election in 1998 and retired to write a book about Taiwan. On the critical point, he was unambiguous:
"Taiwan and China are two separate governments, neither subject to the jurisdiction of the other, which exercise their own respective sovereignty. About this there is no question."
Chen's inauguration in 2000 was a nationalistic festival, from the folk dances to the inaugural address, the theme of which was "Taiwan stands up." He had taken a line from revolutionary Chinese leader Mao Zedong, who declared at the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949: "China stands up."
Today, President Chen, who is up for re-election in March, plans a referendum on whether Taiwan should buy more U.S. weapons and negotiate with China. Whatever the outcome, he will have established the principle, as the referendum law says, of asking for a vote "when the nation is threatened by an external force that could cause a change in the nation's sovereignty."
Chinese leaders evidently understand President Chen's plans, but seem frustrated by military weakness. China could fire its 500 missiles deployed opposite Taiwan to destroy its factories and transport. Missiles, however, cannot occupy a country.
Moreover, the Chinese seem not to want to risk war with the United States. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, said in Beijing last month that the United States would "resist any attempt to use coercion" against Taiwan.
Nor do Chinese leaders, sitting atop huge unemployment and a banking crisis, want to lose the U.S. export market, worth $150 billion last year. U.S. forces have plans to defend Taiwan, and have been working quietly with Taiwan's forces on joint operations against China. But President Bush, whom American officials say has taken charge personally of China policy, has vacillated. In 2001, Bush said the United States would do whatever was necessary to preserve Taiwan's freedom. Recently, he said he was opposed to unilateral action by Taiwan or China to change the status quo.
For the future, the president has no known strategy. The dangers are several: President Chen could become too bold and provoke China into an assault. The Chinese, fearing that time favors Taiwan, could launch an attack on a slim pretext. The United States, focused on the war on terror, and Japan, seeking not to anger China, could stumble into hostilities because they have not been paying attention.
Altogether, the Taiwan issue is a powder keg that desperately requires attention before someone lights a match nearby and sets off an explosion.
