THE RISING EAST

By Richard Halloran

After the decisive victory of the American armed forces over those of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 1991, President George Bush the Elder proclaimed: "The Vietnam syndrome is buried forever in the sands of the Arabian Peninsula."

He asserted that the American people had shed their reluctance to apply military power that was a consequence of the agonizing and draining war that Americans fought in Vietnam from 1954 to 1973. Americans would support a war whose rationale was clearly explained to them, that unleashed overwhelming power to obtain a rapid conclusion, and that had a well-defined exit strategy.

U.S. soldiers investigate the scene of a car bombing in Baghdad, one of two last week that killed more than 100 people. Polls show the violence in Iraq is eroding the public's support for President Bush. Associated Press

With the U.S. presidential election campaign picking up momentum, it has become clear that the war in Iraq will be among the most intensely debated issues in the nation between now and the Nov. 2 election.

Confronted with this, Bush the Younger appears to have four options, none of them attractive. He could order American forces to withdraw and leave it to the Iraqis to reconstitute a government. He could ask the United Nations and the Europeans to take over the task of rebuilding Iraq.

At the other end of the spectrum, he could expand the U.S. mission and impose martial law, putting in more troops, imposing a curfew and demanding that all weapons in Iraq be turned in. Lastly, the U.S.-led coalition could continue to muddle along, hoping that a magic bullet will be found to get American soldiers out of a potential quagmire — like capturing Osama bin Laden.

The polls show that the daily drumbeat of young American men and women being killed has steadily eroded the public's support for Bush the Younger. Last March, Bush was backed by 71 percent of the voters and taxpayers in one survey. That's down to 46 percent in the latest poll. Only 34 percent said the American casualties in Iraq were acceptable; 62 percent said they were not.

"All in all," asked one pollster, "was it worth going to war in Iraq?" The respondents split evenly, 49 percent saying yes and 49 percent saying no. In still another poll, only 41 percent said that America was safer after the invasion of Iraq while 52 percent said it was not.

Beyond that, the administration has asked for an increase of 30,000 soldiers in the Army of 482,000 because of the strain on the forces today.

Investigations into alleged intelligence failures before the war have started. The Defense Department's chief fiscal officer, Dov Zakheim, has said that funds in addition to the $401.7 billion military budget for 2005 would be requested. But he would not specify what that request would be because "we don't know how much to ask for."

The first option, cutting and running, would surely end in Bush's defeat in the election, and the damage to the U.S. power position would be incalculable. Turning to the United Nations and the Europeans seems like a nonstarter, particularly after the "I told you so" reception Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld got at a recent meeting of North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers.

The third option, slamming the hammer down and instituting a genuine occupation that brooked no opposition or dissent, might be tempting; it worked in Germany and Japan after World War II. Most likely, however, it would cause Iraqi opponents of the United States to coalesce and intensify the insurrection against the foreign invader.

That leaves muddling along, trying to pull the fractious Iraqis together politically, training police and other security forces, and getting the economy back on its feet. Let no one doubt that this task has shown itself to be daunting. On the optimistic side, a study by two researchers at the Brooking Institution in Washington, D.C., shows that the murder rate in Baghdad is high but has leveled off in recent months. Electricity production is up, as is oil production. More drinking water is available.

Even so, the critical number, from an American point of view, is the doubling of U.S. troops killed in action to 44 a month, up from 22 a month. In addition, another 500 a month are being injured or wounded. Only the most hardened cynic would argue that this is but a small price to pay and should not have an effect on popular support for the war.

Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia and a frequent contributor.