Posted on: Sunday, February 29, 2004

Toss-ups for Oscars

• 10 reasons to watch Oscars
• How Oscar savvy are you?

By Jack Garner
Gannett News Service

Scarlett Johansson and Bill Murray star in a scene from the romantic comedy "Lost in Translation." Advertiser library photo

Keisha Castle-Hughes, who plays Paikea in "Whale Rider," is up against some veterans in the best-actress category. Newmarket Films via Gannett news Service

By the end of the Oscars broadcast tonight, a handful of movies will start angling to sell a lot more tickets and DVDs, and four actors will be calling their agents to get them more money.

They'll be the big winners at the 76th annual Academy Awards.

Look for a big night for the epic "Lord of the Rings" franchise. The final film of the trilogy — "The Return of the King" — has racked up 11 nominations, especially impressive since it has no acting nominations.

But nothing's for sure, and this year's impressive nomination slate offers close races up and down the list. Look for a few surprises to enliven the acting awards.

That's why only a few categories offer solid bets. In the top one, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" will almost certainly be named best picture. Doesn't that mythic epic have a built-in advantage, because a vote for the one film is like a vote for the entire, massive trilogy? 'Tis true.

I don't envy the other best-picture nominees — "Mystic River," "Lost in Translation," "Master and Commander" and "Seabiscuit." They're not only competing against "The Return of the King," but also the other two films. It would be different if "The Fellowship of the Ring" or "The Two Towers" had won a best-picture statuette in previous years. They didn't. This is the last time for Oscar voters to honor a most impressive accomplishment. You can bet they will.

Feel pity for Clint Eastwood and his wrenching tragedy, "Mystic River." In almost any other year, that film would have Oscar written all over it.

I suspect the best-picture and best-director categories also will align themselves, as they almost always should. In other words, "Rings" director Peter Jackson also will take home an Oscar.

Can a 13-year-old Maori schoolgirl from Mount Wellington, New Zealand, actually pull an upset in the best-actress category, against the likes of Charlize Theron and previous Oscar-winner Diane Keaton?

Oh yes, it's possible — and wouldn't a victory by Keisha Castle-Hughes be tonight's most seismic moment? Here's how "The Whale Rider" lassie could win: Charlize Theron ("Monster") has long been the favorite, but veteran Diane Keaton ("Something's Gotta Give") has her following and Naomi Watts ("21 Grams") has been gaining ground among Oscar handicappers. What if all three front-runners split the votes in fairly even amounts — and Keisha sneaks through to victory? After all, "Whale Rider" has many devotees, and Keisha's scene of anguish when her granddad fails to show for her school program is one of the most affecting bits of acting last year.

I'm not saying it's likely. Theron is the likely choice. But it is slightly possible.

What's the night's most volatile race? That's easy — the best-actor category. Consider this cast of characters: Veteran comic Bill Murray, fresh from a restrained turn in a sophisticated, only slightly comic romance ("Lost in Translation").

English acting legend — Ben Kingsley ("The House of Sand and Fog") — who won for his title role in the 1982 film "Gandhi" and probably deserved a second Oscar as the monstrous "Sexy Beast" in 2000. Jude Law ("Cold Mountain"), an incredibly handsome young actor who has finally broken through to leading man status.

Sean Penn, who has gone from Hollywood bad boy to much-respected actor, may have turned in his greatest performance with his deeply affecting work in "Mystic River." Penn has never won — despite memorable portrayals in "Dead Man Walking," "I Am Sam" and other films. For good or ill, he also carries potent political baggage, having gone twice to Iraq. Some call him this generation's Hanoi Jane (Fonda). Others say, you go, guy. I say he's the Oscar winner.

And then there's the category's ringer — Johnny Depp, who created the year's most purely entertaining character, the wacky pirate Jack Sparrow in "Pirates of the Caribbean," employing an amazingly accurate imitation of Rolling Stone Keith Richards. It's the sort of performance that makes you smile, but hardly ever wins awards.

Will this year be different?

Will they get somebody intelligent to read all those foreign names in the supporting actor and actress categories? We can only hope. Try wrapping your tongue around Shohreh Aghdashloo or Djimon Hounsou. She's an Iranian actress nominated as Kingsley's wife in "The House of Sand and Fog;" he's the mysterious neighbor in "In America."

However, I think they'll only have to say their names once. The winner in the supporting actress category will almost certainly be Renee Zellweger, whose spunky country girl brings the most warmth to "Cold Mountain."

The male winner will probably be Tim Robbins, who makes guilt and self-loathing painfully clear in "Mystic River."

Is "The Lord of the Rings" a lock for the technical awards? Well, the hobbits will surely kick human butt in the visual effects categories, and maybe for costumes, but "Girl With a Pearl Earring" might surprise in the cinematography and art direction areas. It's the year's most appropriately beautiful movie, recreating the world of the 16th-century Dutch masters.

What's the year's most shocking omission? "Cold Mountain" getting skipped for best picture or best director is certainly worth considering — but I suggest a more glaring mistake, even though it's in a much less significant category: How could a makeup artist turn Charlize Theron — one of the most gorgeous women on Earth — into the homely serial killer in "Monster" and not even get nominated in the makeup category?

Since most of the big awards don't come until late in the evening, does it matter if I turn late into the show? It certainly does matter. Whenever Billy Crystal emcees — as he does this year — the opening film parody and monologue are almost always the most entertaining aspect of the entire show.

You can skip the 6-to-6:30 p.m. red carpet pre-show segment, but be in front of your plasma screen by 6:30 if you want to have something to talk about with your co-workers tomorrow morning.

One thing's for sure: You'll hear a bunch of wardrobe malfunction jokes, but everyone's breasts will stay under wraps, if just barely.

• • •

10 reasons to watch Oscars

•	Your Oscar picks We asked. You told us. Here are the results of The Advertiser's online Oscar favorites poll: Best picture: "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" Best director: Peter Jackson Best actor: Johnny Depp Best actress: Charlize Theron Best supporting actor: Ken Watanabe Best supporting actress: Renee Zellweger

1. Billy Crystal emcees again, for the eighth time.

2. To see if the Hawai'i International Film Festival was ahead of the curve last fall when it awarded "The Twilight Samurai" (Japan), a film directed by Yoji Yamada and a nominee as Best Foreign Language Film, the First Hawaiian Bank Golden Maile Feature Award at HIFF 2003.

3. You won't see whipping outtakes from Mel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ."

4. J-Lo won't be seen on the arm of Ben Affleck.

5. "American Idol" doesn't air on Sunday.

6. Oscar gift baskets (lavished upon celebrities) this year total $10,000 in value — including six-night stays at the JW Marriott Ihilani Resort and Spa at Ko Olina.

7. To see if you've every heard any of the five nominated songs.

8. There will be a loving tribute to a handful of true Hollywood legends, including Bob Hope and Katharine Hepburn.

9. "Cojo" — that's Steve Cojocaru, fashion guru from "Entertainment Tonight" — won't be dissing the ill-dressed (the Oscars are on ABC).

10. If Alec Baldwin wins best supporting actor for "The Cooler," it will reflect brightly on executive producer Robert Gryphon, who earned his bachelor's degree at age 16, then two master's degrees at 21, all from Hawai'i Pacific University.

• • •

How Oscar savvy are you?

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences not only honors the year's best in cinema but also makes interesting strides trivia-wise. How much do you know?

Questions:

1. Sofia Coppola is the first American woman nominated for a best-director Oscar, but two foreign women have been nominated for that award. Name them.

2. The buzz before the opening of the 1977 thriller "Looking for Mr. Goodbar" was that Diane Keaton might win an Oscar for her role. She didn't. What did she win the Oscar for that year?

3. At 13, New Zealand's Keisha Castle-Hughes is the youngest-ever best-actress nominee. Who was the youngest Oscar nominee in any category?

4. When Miramax's "Cold Mountain" failed to win a best-picture nomination, it broke a long run by the studio. When was the last time a best-picture race didn't include a Miramax film?

5. If "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" wins best picture, it will be a boon for the fantasy genre. When was the last time a fantasy film took the top honor?

6. All three "Lord of the Rings" films have made the best-picture race. Has any other series had such Oscar success?

7. Brazilian Fernando Meirelles received a best-director nomination for his film "City of God," but the movie itself didn't win a best-picture nod. How many foreign films have grabbed a spot in the top category?

8. Only four actors have won more than two Academy Awards. Name them.

9. A best-picture nomination for "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" and Johnny Depp's acting nomination for "Pirates of the Caribbean" are putting seafaring swashbucklers back in the spotlight. But only one film from the genre has won best picture. Name it.

10. With her best-supporting-actress nomination for "Cold Mountain," Renee Zellweger finds herself in the Oscar race for a third consecutive year. Who was the last performer to have such a streak?

Answers:

ON TV: 76th annual Academy Awards 6:30 tonight KITV

1. The last woman nominated for best director was New Zealander Jane Campion, for her 1993 drama "The Piano." Italian Lina Wertmuller was nominated for the 1976 film "Seven Beauties." Neither woman won.

2. Keaton wasn't even nominated for her performance in "Mr. Goodbar." Instead, she won the best-actress Oscar for her portrayal of the title character in Woody Allen's "Annie Hall."

3. Eight-year-old Justin Henry, who was nominated for a supporting role in 1979's "Kramer vs. Kramer." The youngest winner is Tatum O'Neal, who landed a supporting-actress award for "Paper Moon" when she was only 10.

4. You have to go back to 1991, when the best-picture candidates were Warner Bros.' "JFK," Disney's "Beauty and the Beast," TriStar's "Bugsy," Columbia's "The Prince of Tides" and Orion's "The Silence of the Lambs." In 1992, Miramax nabbed a nomination for "The Crying Game" and then landed a film in the race each year through 2002. During the 11-year-run, the company took top honors for "The English Patient," "Shakespeare in Love" and last year's "Chicago."

5. Unless you count 1956's "Around the World in 80 Days," a fantasy film has never won best picture. This despite nominations for the smash hits "Star Wars" and "E.T.: The Extraterrestrial."

6. Yes. All three "Godfather" films were nominated for best picture. Even more impressive, the first two won.

7. Seven. "Grand Illusion," from France, which won in 1938; "Z" (Algeria, 1969); "The Emigrants" (Sweden, 1972); "Cries and Whispers" (Sweden, 1973); "Il Postino" (Italy, 1995); "Life is Beautiful" (Italy, 1998); and "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" (Taiwan, 2001). None of them won.

8. Katharine Hepburn is the Oscar queen, with four awards. Not far behind are Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman and Walter Brennan, with three each. It's also interesting to note that Meryl Streep, who has won only twice, has the most nominations at 13.

9. In 1935, "Mutiny on the Bounty" won. The film is also noteworthy for producing three best-actor nominees, Clark Gable, Franchot Tone and Charles Laughton, none of whom won.

10. You don't have to look far. Russell Crowe was nominated for his performances in "The Insider" (1999), "Gladiator" (2000) and "A Beautiful Mind" (2001). Crowe won a best-actor Oscar for "Gladiator."