THE RISING EAST
China links Taiwan dispute to North Korea talks
By Richard Halloran
Chinese diplomats are seeking to link their support for the United States in nuclear negotiations with North Korea with a none-too-subtle demand that America back China in its running dispute with Taiwan, all of which has put President Bush in a quandary that is compounded by politics at home.
Associated Press
Washington insiders say Chinese Embassy officials have fanned out over the capital, pointing to their efforts to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Chinese were hosts to a meeting in Beijing this past week in which South Korean, Japanese, American, Russian and North Korean representatives took part.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly, left, meets with Chinese State Councillor and former Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan in Beijing. Representatives from the United States, Japan, China, Russia and the two Koreas have been in Chinese capital for talks on North Korean nuclear weapons.
There and in Washington, the Chinese have suggested that in return for their central role in the talks with North Korea, they expect the United States to persuade President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan to give up plans to hold a referendum at the same time as Taiwan's presidential election on March 20.
The referendum itself is rather bland, asking the people of Taiwan to approve improvements in the nation's defenses against Chinese missiles and to vote for negotiations with China. Those questions are not nearly so important as the precedent the referendum will set — and that is what has made the Chinese so angry.
Chen wants to set up the referendum as a political instrument that can be used later when he seeks to revise Taiwan's constitution. He will have established the principle, as the referendum law says, of asking for a national vote "when the nation is threatened by an external force that could cause a change in the nation's sovereignty."
That precedent could well be a great leap forward in Chen's long-range campaign to make Taiwan formally independent of China, which claims sovereignty over the island.
The Chinese argument for linkage between the North Korean and Taiwan issues is fundamentally flawed.
On North Korea, China and the United States have parallel interests, both seeking to stop the North Koreans from acquiring nuclear weapons. China no more wants North Korean nuclear missiles on its border in Manchuria than Washington wants them pointed at U.S. forces in Asia or at Alaska and Hawai'i.
On Taiwan, in contrast, China and the United States have different objectives. China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has vowed to use military force to capture the island, if necessary. U.S. policy varies, depending on who's in the White House. Most American leaders argue that the fate of Taiwan should be determined peacefully and with the assent of the people of Taiwan.
Here's where the quandary arises. On the one hand, President Bush not only wants Chinese help with North Korea but also in his war on terror and on other international issues. As he told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the White House in December: "We are partners in diplomacy, working to meet the dangers of the 21st century."
On the other hand, a referendum is a normal element of democratic governments around the world. An American president who opposes a referendum puts himself in an awkward political position, particularly one who has made the spread of democracy an integral part of his foreign policy.
President Bush is under political pressure from at least three sides. The neo-conservatives who have been a mainstay in his support urge the United States to give a full guarantee to Taiwan's security; some assert that Washington should recognize Taiwan as an independent nation despite vehement Chinese opposition.
Moderates in the Republican and Democratic parties contend that the future of Taiwan is undecided and limit themselves to asserting that the status quo should be preserved until a peaceful solution is found.
Sen. John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who is the front-runner for his party's presidential nomination in November, favors a more pro-Chinese stance. The senator supports a "one-China" policy that sees Taiwan as a part of China and asserts that the United States is not obligated to help protect Taiwan.
Bush himself has fluctuated between a hard line when he said in 2001 that America would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan, and a softer statement to Premier Wen Jiabao in December, saying: "Comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally to change the status quo, which we oppose."
This has all the appearances of a rousing campaign issue in the making, one the Chinese may be sorry they had a hand in fomenting because, in American politics, the outcome is unpredictable.
Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia.
