Hiring boom expected this year
By Kristen Gerencher
CBS MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO — Whether you've been eager to switch employers for some time, or are just starting to think about landing a new job, the economy may be on your side in 2004.
A hiring boom could begin as early as this quarter as U.S. companies budget for staff expansion in the new year. Renewed hiring is under way and should accelerate as the year progresses, labor market experts said.
Jobs likely will flow to the hard-hit travel, trade and financial sectors from construction and housing, which have been going gangbusters on low interest rates and tax cuts, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm in St. Louis.
"As the economy picks up, the resources that flowed to the construction sector are going to have to flow back to the business sector to finance the rise in capital expenditures we expect," Prakken said. "Businesses are finding they're going to have to modernize their equipment as the economy starts rebounding."
A nationwide shortage of pharmacists and nurses poses promising prospects for healthcare job seekers as well.
The stock market rebound is generating "wealth effects" where consumers tend to spend more after seeing their net worth rise on paper. That may lay the groundwork for more jobs in the service sector, Prakken said.
Such a shift may require a change in mindset. It has been a while since many workers considered a new job a real possibility, said Joan Lloyd, a management consultant in Milwaukee.
"They've been hunkered down in their bunkers, and they're looking now to make their move," Lloyd said. "With the economy starting to really roll, this might be the time for a really big move either to entrepreneurship, to an entirely different company or (consider) a career change."
The number of people out of work and seeking jobs has held steady in recent months. Unemployment hovered at 5.9 percent in November, the same as a year earlier, but down from a recent peak of 6.4 percent in June, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
The jobless recovery that lingered for so long appears to be easing, though it has a long way to go, said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
The economy grew at an 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, marking the fastest gross domestic product growth in 20 years. Growth will likely slow to about 4 percent in the fourth quarter, but it all bodes well for labor expansion, Bernstein said.
The first half of 2004 likely will bring net job growth of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs a month, up from the current 80,000 monthly job additions, he said. The number should rise to 150,000 to 200,000 a month in the second half of next year.
Bernstein and Prakken forecast an unemployment rate of 5.4 percent a year from now.
Still, workers can afford to be only slightly pickier this year than they were last year, Bernstein said.
"Even with the job growth we expect to see in '04, we still have a jobs deficit relative to before the recession began in late 2000," he said. "The rate of job growth is tepid in historical terms. That means we're going to be hard-pressed to create enough employment to provide jobs for everyone who needs one."
Despite the temptation to fantasize about another tight labor market where employers wave bonuses and quirky perks to woo talent as they did in 1999, Americans still will have to work at finding work, economists said.
With that in mind, here's a guide to landing the next gig — whether you're actively looking or haven't conceived of taking such a leap in years.
• Regroup and reassess.
Take inventory of where you are and where you want to go, and give relocation serious thought since that may be necessary to achieve your goals, Lloyd said. Be realistic about the possibilities for fattening your paycheck. Depending on your skills and location, a lateral move may be considered a good deal, Bernstein said. "Broadly speaking, it's not a great environment for wage growth."
• Step up your networking.
Attend meetings of professional organizations and alumni groups. Schedule one lunch a week with colleagues who work different places, Lloyd said. "The whole idea here is to let people know you're putting yourself into the mix," she said. "It's all informational interviewing." Workers can also network on the Internet and make contact with headhunters and colleagues they've met at conventions.
• Revamp your résumé.
Write in detail about the value you add in particular areas. Add "ministories" under bullet points that briefly explain how you maximized the outcome of each major job duty, Lloyd said. She suggested that job seekers follow the acronym CAR — answering what the Challenge was, what Approach they took and what the Results were.
"For each responsibility, you need to ask yourself: 'How can I prove I did this well?' " Also, be sure to customize not just your cover letters but your résumé for each job application you make, she said. Though time-consuming, such a strategy can improve your chances of finding a good fit.
• Rehearse your story verbally.
Strengthen your pitch by doing mock interviews, practicing with friends or attending training or public speaking seminars. Those who've been laid off especially can benefit from developing their confidence and anticipating questions, said Smooch Reynolds, chief executive of the Repovich-Reynolds Group, an executive search firm in Pasadena, Calif.
"People need to write a script about why they've been out of work that they feel comfortable with, and they need to get comfortable with standing tall and proud over the fact that they've been out of work," Reynolds said. "It's a fact of life. There's not necessarily anything wrong with them."
• Retool and upgrade your skills.
Make yourself marketable by finishing a degree that you've put off, taking a course that enhances your skills or finding new mentors.
"You can network all you want but if your skills are out of date or you don't have that degree or don't have the right experience, you're not going to get anywhere," Lloyd said.
Don't overlook opportunities like moving into a managerial role at your current employer either, she said. "A lot of times you can get valuable experience on your current job that you can use to leapfrog into a new job."
