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Posted on: Sunday, July 11, 2004

$46 billion in trade ties China, Taiwan

By William Mellor
Bloomberg News Service

On a blustery election night in Taiwan, Winston Wong, chief executive of Grace Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp., hosted a dinner at the members-only Taipei City Club.

As his dozen guests dined on sashimi, shark's fin soup and lobster Mornay, the son of the founder of Formosa Plastics Corp., Taiwan's biggest industrial company, seldom took his eyes from a television he had installed to show the March 20 results.

Wong, 53, had risen at 6 a.m. and traveled for six hours from Tokyo to vote for incumbent President Chen Shui-bian, 53, whom the Chinese government brands a traitor because he supports an independent Taiwan.

The next day, Wong flew to Shanghai to resume his duties as a partner in flash memory chip maker Grace with Jiang Mianheng, 53, son of former Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

China and Taiwan are divided by one of the world's last Cold War frontiers — and business relations have never been warmer.

Trade between Taiwan and the mainland totaled a record $46.3 billion in 2003, according to Taipei's Ministry of Economic Affairs. Taiwanese investments in China rose to $7.7 billion from $6.7 billion in 2002.

"Money talks, and the Chinese government wants to attract businessmen from Taiwan," says Peter Tang, who manages Hong Kong-based JF Asset Management's $100 million JF Taiwan Fund. "The two economies are integrating very rapidly."

LITTLE TAIPEIS

In 2002, China became Taiwan's biggest export market — taking in everything from cell phones to galvanized steel. Out of a population of 23 million, some 800,000 Taiwanese live and work on the mainland, the economic ministry says.

Kenichi Ohmae, a Tokyo-based management consultant, puts the figure at 2 million. "Everywhere you look in China, you see businesses run by Taiwanese — everything from golf courses to massage parlors," Ohmae says.

Entire communities in China have become little Taipeis. The Shanghai suburb of Kunshan is one Taiwantown; Dongguan, between Hong Kong and Guangzhou in southern China, is another. These enclaves feature Taiwanese schools, restaurants and karaoke bars.

Taiwan's presence in China comes without the benefit of a direct link across the 112-mile-wide Taiwan Strait, a branch of the Pacific Ocean that joins the East China and South China seas.

Wong must fly to Shanghai from Taipei via Hong Kong, turning what should be a 90-minute commute into a five-hour, two-leg chore. Freight from Taiwanese-owned factories must touch a nonmainland port before it reaches a China destination.

Taiwan, a de facto independent state since 1949, has resisted officially declaring its nationhood. One reason: The Chinese government has said repeatedly it will invade should Taiwan do so.

Both sides say they're willing to resume unification talks that broke down in 1993. China's government says discussions must start with the premise that Taiwan is part of China.

Chen, 53, says he wants "state-to-state" talks that put Taiwan and China on equal footing — a condition Premier Wen Jiabao, 61, says he won't accept.

MISSLES FIRED

Tensions have escalated in recent years. In 1996, China fired missiles over Taiwan during an election campaign. In 2000, Chen and his pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party defeated the Nationalist Party.

Chen won re-election this year. His opponent, Nationalist Party Chairman Lien Chan, 67, had campaigned for improved relations with China.

Chen's victory heightens the likelihood of hostilities, says Gordon Chang, 53, author of "The Coming Collapse of China." "The cross-straits currents are quite dangerous right now," he says.

As the political rhetoric heats, the climate is improving for Taiwanese companies to locate on the mainland.

'NO PROTECTION'

Tang says China's enmity toward Chen won't sever cross-strait business ties.

"At the end of the day, for Taiwanese like Winston, the focus is on the business and financial opportunities," Tang says.

Wong reflected on his relationship with his Chinese business partner and the risks and opportunities in China.

"Jiang and I never have any disagreements because we never talk about politics," Wong said. "If Taiwan ever declared its independence, China would definitely invade. But Mr. Chen is very smart. He will not do that."

If Wong's assessment is wrong, "We Taiwanese businessmen in China will have no protection," he said.