Posted on: Wednesday, July 14, 2004

VOLCANIC ASH
Congressmen face competition

By David Shapiro

Hawai'i elections will be spiced up this fall with rare contested races for both of our seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Republicans Dalton Tanonaka and Mike Gabbard have announced plans to challenge incumbent Democratic Reps. Neil Abercrombie and Ed Case.

Both challengers face uphill battles, but they have enough name recognition, media savvy and political experience to make things interesting in races where incumbents have traditionally drawn only token opposition.

Republicans have long believed the liberal Abercrombie could be had in the 1st Congressional District by the right candidate.

Former prisoner-of-war Orson Swindle had impressive credentials and got Abercrombie's attention a couple of times, but Swindle just hadn't lived in Hawai'i long enough to win over local voters.

Otherwise, Abercrombie hasn't had to break much of a sweat to hold the seat he first won in 1990.

Tanonaka, a former television newsman, is knowledgeable and well-spoken. He campaigned impressively in his first run for public office — a loss to James "Duke" Aiona in the Republican primary for lieutenant governor in 2002.

His success will depend largely on his ability to poach moderate Democratic voters who are put off by Abercrombie's bombastic brand of liberalism.

He'll also have to deal with Abercrombie's proven strength as a fund-raiser and face questions about his own political inexperience.

While a few Hawai'i candidates have won seats in Congress as their first elected office, local voters have overwhelmingly favored candidates who first paid their dues in the Legislature or on the City Council.

Gabbard's fight against Case in the 2nd Congressional District will be even more difficult than Tanonaka's.

He is a hard campaigner who comes across as personable in TV appearances and face-to-face encounters with voters, but these are qualities that Case shares.

Gabbard will have to counter a perception that he's a one-issue candidate who has built his political career primarily on his virulent opposition to same-sex marriage and gay rights in general.

Hawai'i voters overwhelmingly passed a 1998 constitutional amendment that he and others advocated barring same-sex marriage, but it remains to be seen what kind of legs the issue still has in a federal election six years later.

The visibility Gabbard gained in the gay marriage fight was enough to get him elected to the City Council from West O'ahu last year, but he has been quiet on the council and has done little to distinguish himself.

It'll be interesting to hear his argument as to why he deserves a promotion to a much higher office.

Fulminating about the gay menace probably isn't going to cut it.

The religious undertones of his main political issue opens the door to fair questions about his association with an offshoot of the Krishna faith.

But the main thing working against Gabbard is the hard arithmetic: The district is solidly Democratic.

Case showed tremendous strength in winning 43 percent of the vote in a 44-candidate field last year in a special election to fill the seat opened by the death of Patsy Mink.

The top Republican candidate finished fourth with 6 percent of the vote, and the combined votes of the 10 leading Republican candidates — who included seven current or former officeholders — totaled only 15 percent.

Voter turnout was light, but it was still a good snapshot of the demographic challenge Gabbard faces.

To prevail, Gabbard will have to win over Democratic voters while fighting off the popularity the moderate Case enjoys among mainstream Hawai'i Republicans who are uncomfortable with the extreme conservative views of the national GOP.

David Shapiro, a veteran Hawai'i journalist, can be reached by e-mail at dave@volcanicash.net.