Posted on: Thursday, July 15, 2004

EDITORIAL
Moderation is key in Taiwan relations

Probably the worst of the many things that could go wrong in East Asia would be a series of miscalculations involving Taiwan, which could much too easily lead to war between China and the United States.

True, the status quo is so highly profitable for all three parties that it's hard to imagine any of them rocking the boat. America is China's largest export customer, and China is dependent on the hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese who work there and the billions invested there by Taiwanese to meet those demands.

Yet all three sides have so shamelessly pandered, for purposes of domestic politics, that resulting unrealistic expectations could force any of them, despite their best judgment, into destructive behavior:

• To build national cohesiveness and as a distraction from the terrible hardships their policies have caused, the communist government in Beijing has vowed, stridently and often, to restore Taiwan to the fold. Were it to back down in the face of a provocation, such as a declaration of independence, from Taiwan, it easily could forfeit its mandate to govern China.

• To please the conservative wing of his party, President Bush has tilted notably to Taiwan's side, angering China with ever larger and more sophisticated arms deals, and with intimations, from which Bush later had to retreat somewhat, that Taiwan could count on the United States to defend it from attack by China.

• Few Taiwanese would want to trade their brawling democracy and bubbling prosperity for the privations of the mainland. Domestic politics and Bush's assurances have emboldened them to test, in ever more daring ways, China's patience and resolve. Growing national pride makes many Taiwanese eager to assert what they are sure is already de facto independence.

The answer clearly is for all three sides to exercise restraint and moderation. The pace of economic integration between China and Taiwan seems likely to make the present dispute a mute point in a decade or two.

So when Beijing says it is "gravely concerned" with the level of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, as it did this week, Washington must pay attention. China has tolerated, with a modicum of bluster, a certain level of sales over the years. There's no profit in exceeding that level.

Similarly, China should sharply reduce the hundreds of mid-range missiles it has pointed at Taiwan, and Taiwan must exercise care and discretion as it seeks its own place under the sun.