Posted on: Friday, July 23, 2004
Mayoral rivals at odds over debates
By Johnny Brannon
Advertiser Staff Writer
Honolulu voters have had few chances to judge the leading mayoral contenders in face-to-face public forums so far, and the number of joint appearances they make before Election Day could have important strategic value for each campaign.
Mufi Hannemann is pushing aggressively for more appearances, with minimal restraint on how questions are posed. Duke Bainum has been more cautious about the number of events and the format to be followed.
Those are logical positions for each to take at this time, say experts. A poll sponsored by The Advertiser in March found that Bainum had taken an early lead over Hannemann, and relatively few voters were undecided.
The Advertiser Hawai'i Poll queried 315 O'ahu registered voters in March and found that 44 percent favored Bainum, while 35 percent would for Hannemann if the election were held immediately.
The poll by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu also found that 12 percent supported former Mayor Frank Fasi, and just 9 percent were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percent.
"It's a typical strategy for the challenger to try to get the front-runner to debate early and often," said Jim Ross, a top San Francisco political consultant with no connection to either candidate.
"You run the risk of damage if you're in the lead," Ross said. "You're putting your neck on the line."
He recalled a campaign in which supporters of the underdog donned chicken costumes to ridicule the front-runner for his alleged fear of debates, in hopes of drawing him out.
"If you start seeing chickens popping up in Honolulu, that's probably why," he said.
Hannemann's campaign hasn't gone that far, but his strategy is clearly to seek unbridled public debates and spontaneous direct communication between himself and his opponent.
"The more opportunities that people have to see candidates side by side, the more informed they will be as an electorate," said Hannemann spokeswoman Elisa Yadao. "People deserve to see their candidates for mayor in situations that are not tightly controlled."
She said the position was not solely strategic, to benefit Hannemann.
"I think that strategically it's better for everybody," Yadao said. "Mufi has some very good ideas and is enthusiastic about sharing them with the people."
Bainum spokeswoman Phyllis Kihara declined to comment on the strategic value associated with the number and style of joint appearances, but said public forums are just part of Bainum's campaign.
She agreed the campaign had been very particular about how such events are organized. "We want to make sure we're all very clear about the format and the rules, so that there's no confusion," Kihara said.
She said Bainum would appear with Hannemann more often as the race neared an end. "It's still very early," she noted.
Neal Milner, a political science professor at the University of Hawai'i, said public debates are important to voters for two key reasons. "The reason that usually gets talked about is the policy issues, and where the candidates stand on policy," he said. "But I think there's even a more basic one than that, and that's visibility. When candidates debate, it gets (media) coverage, and that reminds everyone there's an election coming up."
This race does not appear to have generated a great deal of community excitement so far, he said.
Televised debates can be the most important to candidates, because they're more likely to attract the attention of people who aren't interested enough to attend an event in person, Milner said.
"Non-televised, the audience is likely to be considerably more interested in politics and issues than average," he said.
"If you're doing a TV debate, it's more wide-open."
Reach Johnny Brannon at jbrannon@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-8070.
Front-runners generally want to hold on to their lead, without taking unnecessary risks in debates and forums, he said. Such events help give underdogs the exposure they need to win more support, while opening the danger that a leading candidate will make a mistake that can be exploited.
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Upcoming joint appearances by mayoral candidates:*
Aug. 3, 11:30 a.m. Luncheon forum sponsored by the Japanese Chamber of Commerce featuring Duke Bainum, Frank Fasi and Mufi Hannemann. Japanese Cultural Center of Hawai'i, 2454 S. Beretania St., 5th Floor, Manoa Grand Ballroom. Open to the public, $12 lunch, reservations required. Call 949-5531.
Aug. 18, 2-4 p.m. Forum sponsored by the Honolulu Board of Realtors featuring Duke Bainum and Mufi Hannemann. Ko'olau Golf Club, 45-550 Kionaole Road, Ko'olau Ballroom. Light refreshments. Members only. RSVP to hbradmin@hicentral.com
Sept. 2, 11:15-1:15. Lunch forum sponsored by the Council for Native Hawaiian Advancement featuring Duke Bainum and Mufi Hannemann. Focus largely on issues important to Hawaiians. Hilton Hawaiian Village, 2005 Kalia Road (room to be announced). $35 lunch, not required to attend. Open to the public. Reservations requested. Call 521-5011 or visit www.hawaiiancouncil.org
Sept. 9, 9-10 p.m. Televised forum on KHON Channel 2 featuring Duke Bainum and Mufi Hannemann.
* Additional events that may be scheduled could not be confirmed.
