Posted on: Friday, July 30, 2004

Tourism study finds resources limited

By Kelly Yamanouchi
Advertiser Staff Writer

A new state tourism economic study intended to help plan for Hawai'i's future shows how limited some of the Islands' resources are.

A draft of the report, posted yesterday on the state's Web site for the Sustainable Tourism Study (www.hawaiitourismstudy.com), is designed to show how growth or contraction of the tourism industry could affect the state's economy, as well as the consumption of water, electricity, fuel and solid waste services. The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism hopes policy-makers and planners can use the report to shape Hawai'i's future.

The study was commissioned by the state because "everybody was talking about how much growth can we really have in the visitor industry," said state economist Pearl Imada Iboshi. As the industry recovers, "we're at a position again where we really need to start looking at what we want to be when we grow up."

The study projects that at the current rate of growth in visitor spending and with adjustments for inflation, tourism will expand into a $17 billion industry in 2030 from $10.5 billion in 2003.

The study adds that "within the decade critical visitor inventory constraints will be hit" if no new hotels are built. Still, demand in Hawai'i's tourism industry is expected to grow.

The study says "the reluctance to construct new hotels may have the unintended consequence of channeling visitors into informal accommodations such as illegal bed and breakfast establishments, and this activity is very difficult to monitor and control."

The growing presence of tourists in residential neighborhoods can alter the fabric of the neighborhood and impose additional demands on transportation systems and other infrastructure, the report said.

According to the study, the tourism industry cannot expand much further with the existing labor force, so more jobs will have to be created to sustain significant growth.

"Yet, in an island economy such as that of Hawaii, the constraints of the natural and built environment also present limits to growth of tourism and other industrial sectors," the study reads. "There is a larger question concerning the ultimate carrying capacity of the islands to sustain people, be they residents or visitors. How many residents are desirable must be determined in order to determine how many visitors are desirable."

The report does not give an answer to what the "carrying capacity" of Hawai'i is, but shows what could happen in various growth scenarios.

For example, the study uses a color-coding system to identify "trigger points" for when new infrastructure needs to be built. With the current pace of visitor growth, demand for water, electricity, utility gas, petroleum and solid waste services will reach "amber" levels between 2010 and 2020. By 2027, demand for all but solid waste service reaches the highest level of "red."

While the per-day, per-person spending level for residents is lower than that of visitors, the economic and enviromental impact of residents far exceeds that of visitors because residents outnumber tourists on any given day, the report adds.

Reach Kelly Yamanouchi at kyamanouchi@honoluluadvertiser.com or 535-2470.