honoluluadvertiser.com

Sponsored by:

Comment, blog & share photos

Log in | Become a member
The Honolulu Advertiser

Posted at 11:45 a.m., Friday, June 18, 2004

Stocks move upward despite inflation worry

Hawai'i Stocks
Updated Market Chart

By Michael J. Martinez
Associated Press

NEW YORK — Investors overcame their concerns about inflation and mounting trade deficits to push stocks moderately higher today, but the major indexes ended the week mixed as nervousness mounted over the Federal Reserve's pending decision on interest rates.

America's current account deficit, the broadest measure of U.S. trade, reached an all-time high in the first quarter of 2004, but there was little apparent worry that consumers' appetite for foreign goods could cause prices to spike higher — an inflationary trigger that could prompt the Fed to abandon its promise of a measured hike in interest rates.

Today was a "triple witching" day on Wall Street — when options and futures contracts expire — which customarily means increased volatility in individual stock prices. However, overall volatility was low even as prices rose.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 38.89, or 0.4 percent, to 10,416.41.

Broader stock indicators were modestly higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 2.95, or 0.3 percent, at 1,135.00, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 3.06, or 0.2 percent, to 1,986.73.

For the week, the Dow gained 0.1 percent, the Nasdaq dropped 0.7 percent and the S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent. It was the fourth straight week of gains for the Dow, while the S&P 500 fell after three up weeks. The Nasdaq reversed a single week of gains.

Oil prices also rose as the head of OPEC said non-OPEC nations would have difficulty raising output to help make up for the loss of Iraq's oil due to sabotage there. Investors worry that a rise in oil prices could trigger a more general inflationary spike.

The Federal Reserve will meet June 29, and is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by at least 0.25 percent, with a 0.5 percent hike possible.

However, some analysts believe investors have already priced an interest rate hike into the market, and could be looking ahead to next month's second-quarter earnings, which are expected to once again exceed expectations. That would explain today's rise in stock prices despite the trade deficit.

"The key is what corporate earnings are going to do, and I think the expectations there are good," said Hans Olsen, managing director and chief investment officer at Bingham Legg Advisers. "They're anywhere from 50 to 80 percent higher than what people were thinking at the beginning of the year. And when all this noise about inflation is taken away, that's what's going to push the markets."

Archer Daniels Midland Co. said it will pay $400 million to settle an antitrust lawsuit accusing the company of fixing the price of high fructose corn syrup. ADM was up 7 cents at $16.28.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 4 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume was 1.07 billion shares, compared with 971.13 million yesterday.