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Posted at 1:05 p.m., Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Shares end 2nd quarter with moderate advance

Hawai'i Stocks
Updated Market Chart

By Michael J. Martinez
Associated Press

NEW YORK — Wall Street ended the first half of 2004 with a moderate advance today as the Federal Reserve's widely expected interest rate hike allowed investors to put weeks of uncertainty about rates behind them.

The markets' reaction to the Fed's move — which raises the benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage point — was somewhat muted because the hike was exactly what investors had anticipated. The increase, bringing rates off their 45-year low of 1 percent to 1.25 percent, was the first in four years.

Although the market worried about the size of the increase, and the Fed's accompanying policy statement, there were few surprises in the end. The Fed promised to continue a "measured pace" of rate increases to combat inflation. And while it acknowledged there is a somewhat higher risk of inflation, the statement added that some of the inflation factors were transitory and that the risks were balanced.

"This has certainly been a very well telegraphed change in direction," said Jack Caffrey, equities strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "It was an expected increase and a very balanced statement, both designed to keep the market confident in the Fed's ability to manage the economy."

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 22.05, or 0.2 percent, to 10,435.48.

Broader stock indicators were moderately higher. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 4.56, or 0.4 percent, at 1,140.76, and the Nasdaq composite index gained 12.86, or 0.6 percent, to 2,047.79.

Today marked the midpoint of 2004, as well as the end of the second quarter. So far this year, the Dow is off 0.2 percent, but the S&P 500 has gained 2.6 percent and the Nasdaq has climbed 2.2 percent. All three major indexes were up for the quarter and for June.

Most investors and analysts believe the Fed's rate hike is the first of many, with another 0.25 percentage point increase possibly coming as early as the next Fed meeting in August. But with rates historically low to begin with, the cost of borrowing will still be very good for corporate America and won't unduly affect earnings.

"We're now in a rising rate environment, and will be for some time. I think the equity markets realize that, and that's already built into the curve," said Josh Feinman, chief economist for Deutche Asset Management. "It's the trajectory, timing and the ultimate magnitude that we'll have to watch out for."

Feinman said the Fed should be able to keep to its promise of a "measured pace" of rate hikes, just as long as the economy's growth is moderate.

In a preview of what second-quarter results might look like, a number of companies reported better-than-expected earnings late yesterday and today before the session.