THE RISING EAST

By Richard Halloran

A nightmare in the making is a potential lash-up between seagoing pirates and organized terrorists in Southeast Asia, and it has Asian and American security officials sweating.

A senior Singapore official says he worries about a "floating bomb." Another Singaporean warns against "terrorism camouflaged as piracy."

A report from Australia points to "profound and enduring negative impacts on national economic and security interests." A senior U.S. military officer calls for "an awareness of the maritime domain to match the picture we have of our international airspace."

In addition, the secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization, an agency of the United Nations, William O'Neil, has urged:

"All involved in the operation of ships and ports should continue to be aware of the potential dangers to shipping through acts of terrorism and the need to be extremely vigilant."

The South China Sea is the focal point of fear. More than half of the world's shipping passes through the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits and across the South China Sea. The economies of South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, plus that of the U.S. West Coast, would be immediately damaged by a disruption of shipping through the South China Sea.

The pervasive alarm is that terrorists from bands such as the Jemaah Islamiyah will join forces with rapidly multiplying pirates to seize a tanker filled with liquefied natural gas, run the ship into a crowded harbor and blow it up. Or the terrorists and pirates might hijack a tug, load it with explosives and ram it into an oil tanker.

Even more sinister is the threat that a relatively small but highly lethal biological weapon could be smuggled into a harbor aboard ship and released into the port city. Ports are particularly vulnerable since the economics of shipping dictates that imports, exports and trans-shipments be concentrated in large ports.

In addition is the threat that the terrorists and pirates might seize a large bulk carrier or oil tanker, sail it into a narrow strait and scuttle it to block the sea lane. The consequences would include raising the cost of shipping through alternate routes, an increase in shipping insurance and possibly an environmental disaster.

A hint of what might happen occurred late last month, when the terrorist gang in the southern Philippines, Abu Sayyaf, claimed to have exploded a bomb aboard a ferry, killing at least one person and leaving up to 100 others missing.

Abu Sayyaf has also struck from the sea to kidnap tourists from the Philippines and hold them for ransom.

Apart from the terrorist threat, piracy has been spreading, especially in Southeast Asia. The International Maritime Bureau, which tracks episodes of piracy from a center in Malaysia, reported recently that incidents had risen to 445 in 2003, an increase from 370 the year before.

Of those, 121 incidents were reported in waters around Indonesia, which lies alongside the Strait of Malacca and through which pass the Sunda and Lombok Straits. The second-largest number, 58, was reported in harbors and waters near Bangladesh. The maritime bureau said pirates had become more violent, and more crews had been abducted for ransom.

Perhaps nowhere in Asia is there more concern about the terror-pirate threat than in Singapore, the city-state and port on the north shore of the Malacca Strait. Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan was quoted in press reports: "Piracy is entering a new phase; recent attacks have been conducted with almost military precision. The perpetrators are well-trained, have well laid out plans and have sophisticated weapons," which suggests help from a terrorist network.

"Therefore," he concluded, "the threat of a commercial vessel or cruise liner being hijacked and used as a floating bomb against Singapore is a very serious one."

The home affairs minister, Wong Kan Seng, echoed that, saying terror linked with piracy was "a bigger concern for us than just simple piracy."

The Australian report, published by Future Directions International, a think tank, asserted that terrorist groups in Southeast Asia were "proving to be robust and lasting." The report said that terrorists could learn from pirates how to mount maritime attacks against poorly defended ships and ports.

Adm. Thomas Fargo, who commands U.S. military forces in the Pacific from Hawai'i, has long been urging Asian nations, particularly in Southeast Asia, to work together "where the combination of overlapping jurisdictions, thousands of miles of coastline and a challenging environment provide a fertile area for exploitation" by terrorists, pirates, drug-runners and human smugglers.

Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia.

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