THE RISING EAST
Taiwan presidential vote crucial to islands' future
By Richard Halloran
Of the many elections in Asia in the coming months, the vote for the presidency of Taiwan on March 20 will have the most far-reaching consequences, including a question of peace or war between the United States and China.
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Elsewhere, presidential elections in the Philippines and Indonesia and voting for legislatures in South Korea, Japan, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, India, Nepal, and Mongolia will obviously have great import for each nation. Moreover, the elections are evidence of a gradual, if uneven, spread of democracy across Asia.
Taiwan opposition candidate Lien Chan represents the Nationalist Party, known as the Kuomintang, that was long led by the late Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, who fled Taiwan in 1949 after being defeated by the Mao Zedong-led communists.
In Taiwan, however, the votes for president and in a referendum will be votes on whether the island nation should declare formal independence from mainland China, which claims that Taiwan is a province separated from China.
The authorities in Beijing have repeatedly threatened to use military force to prevent that independence.
If the Chinese follow through on their threat, political reality would require the United States to respond. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 all but says the United States must help defend Taiwan; a failure to do so would destroy U.S. credibility in Asia and reduce the security treaties with South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Australia to scraps of paper.
Strategically, a Taiwan controlled by Beijing would put China astride the northern end of the South China Sea through which passes more than half of the world's shipping. China has already asserted that the sea is an internal Chinese lake; projecting power from Taiwan would enable Beijing to back up that claim.
At the center of this gathering storm is the incumbent president of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party. He is standing for re-election against Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party, known as the Kuomintang, long led by the late Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, who fled to Taiwan in 1949 after being defeated by the communists led by Mao Zedong.
President Chen has made clear that he intends to lead Taiwan to true independence; only the timing and the road remain to be decided. The referendum, while bland in asking for approval to improve Taiwan's defenses and to negotiate with Beijing, is intended to set a precedent for later votes on constitutional revision and eventually on independence.
After Chen was defeated in 1998 for re-election as mayor of the capital city of Taipei, he wrote a book on his political thoughts. He said: "Taiwan and China are two separate governments, neither subject to the jurisdiction of the other, which exercise their own respective sovereignty. About this there is no question."
Since he was elected president in 2000, Chen has not wavered from that position even though his political opponents in Taiwan, Chinese leaders in Beijing, and Republican and Democratic leaders in the United States have not wanted to believe him.
When the voters in Taiwan go to the ballot box, they will decide whether to accept his view of Taiwan's future or not.
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The Chinese seem more ready to believe what Chen says but don't know how to cope with him beyond chanting that he must accept their definition of "one China" and blustering about force. China is constrained by military weakness, corruption in government, and massive unemployment, not to mention the prospect of losing a $150 billion market in the United States if it attacks Taiwan.
Incumbent President Chen Shui-bian has made it clear that he intends to lead Taiwan to true independence. The referendum on Taiwan's defense may be the first step toward later votes on constitutional revision and eventually independence.
In Washington, it is clear that President Bush and his Republican advisers have no constructive ideas on how to resolve the billowing China-Taiwan confrontation. Their policy is to argue for the status quo in which Taiwan muddles along as an outcast and China brandishes its sword but makes no move to assault the island.
The Democrats have so far shown no more imagination. The most likely candidate for their presidential nomination, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, said in a recent radio interview that "We are not going to permit them (Taiwanese) to declare independence." Kerry favored a "one-China, two systems" solution like that in Hong Kong; China has offered Taiwan the same.
The flaw in either approach is that the people of Taiwan, who are the most affected, and their present, Chen Shui-bian, seem less willing to settle for the status quo even if it is demanded of them by the world's superpower.
They have already rejected the "one-country, two systems" solution as unworkable.
Thus, their vote on March 20 will tell Beijing, Washington, and the rest of the world whether they are prepared to accept the status quo for a while longer or are ready to move toward independence.
