EDITORIAL
Asia in disarray: Is Bush too distracted?
It isn't only Asia where the wheels appear to be coming off. There's rioting in Kosovo, collapse in Haiti. The worst war at the moment, off most Western radar screens, is in the Sudan.
But Asia is vital to the American economy and crucial to Hawai'i's.
Yet look what's happening:
• Taiwan. On the eve of national elections, President Chen Shui-bian and his vice president were injured in an assassination attempt in Chen's hometown of Tainan.
Not for the first time, Chen has Beijing near apoplexy as he dances oh-so-near the edge of declaring independence from China.
President Bush has contributed to the crisis atmosphere with his changing statements on cross-strait relations. A kind way to put it is that he has restored ambiguity in the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan. Put more realistically, he has performed a clumsy flip-flop.
Taiwan is a headache for Bush because his conservative constituency wants him to back Taiwan independence. But Bush needs China for any number of reasons: to invest in the U.S. economy, to help keep Asian economies stable, and to intercede on his behalf in persuading the North Koreans to abandon their quest for nuclear weapons.
• North Korea. Perhaps our best hope for North Korea is that American intelligence about its nuclear programs is as flawed as it was with Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
All indications are that Pyong-yang is busy making a half-dozen nuclear weapons. We know they have suitable plutonium (international inspectors, until a few months ago, were standing guard over it) and we know they have missiles capable of delivering them.
Inexplicably, Bush is behaving as if time were on his side in this dispute. His partners in the six-party talks with the north — South Korea, Japan, China and Russia — continue to urge him to negotiate in a way that reflects the seriousness of this crisis. Is Bush waiting until after the U.S. election? Or has he concluded that he (and the rest of the region) can learn to live with a nuclear North Korea?
• South Korea. Bush's Iraq policy caused a change in ruling parties. President Roh Moo-hyun, who was elected on his promise to be more independent of Washington, was soon impeached by his legislative opposition.
Both sides are fighting massive corruption scandals. Amid political chaos, Washington's hopes to realign U.S. troops south of Seoul worry some observers as about 1 million troops face off across the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea.
• Thailand. Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge was in Bangkok last week, complimenting the government on its crackdown on terrorism. Unfortunately, that same crackdown has provoked a serious rebirth of insurgency in the country's Muslim south.
• Malaysia. The new prime minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, has called snap elections to better consolidate the position of his ruling coalition by emphasizing his seriousness in dealing with corruption.
That move could backfire if the role of a company controlled by his son in producing parts for the Pakistani A.Q. Khan's nuclear proliferation ring proves embarrassing. In that event, Muslim parties that seek establishment of Sharia law in place of today's mellow secularism would benefit.
