THE RISING EAST
Ouster won't destabilize South Korea
By Richard Halloran
North Koreans have been gloating over the political chaos in South Korea caused by the impeachment of President Roh Moo-hyun. In the long run, however, the South Koreans will surely have the last word.
Advertiser library photo • March 8, 2004
The North Korean government news agency has asserted: "This is not merely an internal affair of South Korea. It is a political rebellion staged by a handful of political quacks."
Just days before his impeachment, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and his wife Kwon Yank-suk joined cadets in celebrating the South Korean military academy's 60th graduation ceremony.
The agency, which reflects the party line in Pyongyang, said the National Assembly's March 12 impeachment of Roh was "an unbearable insult and disgrace to the South Korean people."
Never missing a chance to spew vitriol at the United States, the news agency charged: "It is none other than the United States that sparked such a disturbing development." the agency contended that the United States plotted to unseat Roh, presumably because he has been perceived as anti-American. (U.S. intelligence predicted two weeks ago there would be no impeachment.)
The North Koreans have made common cause with Roh's supporters against the National Assembly, which voted 193-2 to oust Roh. Polls showed that upwards of 70 percent of South Koreans opposed the impeachment.
Seoul's Constitutional Court has six months to uphold or reverse the ejection.
Pyongyang has sided with Roh because he favored accommodation with the regime of Kim Jong Il, much like the "Sunshine Policy" of former President Kim Dae-jung. In doing so, North Korea has acknowledged the legitimacy of the South Korean presidency where it once refused to do so.
In contrast, the National Assembly is controlled by Roh's opponents, who are skeptical of conceding to North Korea. Pyongyang began criticizing the National Assembly well before the vote on impeachment, calling the legislature "a heinous group of traitors" bent on "pro-U.S. sycophantic and treacherous acts."
In South Korea, the impeachment has underscored the fragility of democracy. Yet, some South Koreans argue that their nation has had less than two decades to shed the legacy of hundreds of years of authoritarian rule, and this disruption is but a growing pain.
Moreover, the charges against Roh highlighted the petty politics of his opponents. He was accused of accepting illegal campaign money and of violating a law that prohibits elected officials from campaigning.
Legislative elections are scheduled for April 15.
It must be said, however, that Roh's leadership was often found wanting. He was indecisive, and some lamented that maybe he wasn't up to the job and suggested that he submit to a referendum to confirm his presidency. Authoritarian predecessors Syngman Rhee, Park Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan must have winced.
Further, the North Koreans have been playing on a generational gap. South Koreans younger than 50 have no memory of the North Korean attack that began the Korean War of 1950-53. They are more inclined to seek reconciliation with North Korea and less inclined to favor an alliance with the United States.
The consequences are several:
• Six-party talks among South Korea, Japan, the United States, China, Russia and North Korea intended to persuade Pyongyang to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons are likely on hold until the impeachment issue is settled.
• South Korea's relations with the United States, already damaged by demonstrations of anti-Americanism, are likely to suffer, particularly among members of Congress and the American public, even if not at the official level.
• South Korea's efforts to be reconciled with North Korea will be stagnant until the political disorder has been sorted out. Economic talks scheduled for last week have fallen by the wayside.
• Prime Minister Goh Kun, the interim president, and business leaders in Seoul have appealed for calm, fearing the turmoil could damage the nation's economy.
Despite these setbacks, South Korean democracy will almost certainly survive and even prosper, no matter how the Constitutional Court rules.
Democracy advocates have built free institutions and achieved some momentum in forging a Korean style of democracy. The army, once the arbiter of power in Seoul, has so far remained out of the political arena.
Most telling, many South Koreans, especially those younger than 50, have struggled too long and too hard against the authoritarian rulers of the past. They constitute a force for democracy that is not to be underestimated.
