THE RISING EAST

By Richard Halloran

The good news is that the United States and its allies have captured or killed 3,500 to 4,000 terrorists since the hijacked-airliner assaults on New York City and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001.

The bad news is that the terrorists are being replaced as fast as they are eliminated, especially in Asia.

Specialists with access to intelligence reports say that about two-thirds of the leadership of al-Qaida, the terrorist network led by Osama bin Laden, has been taken out. More than 200 terrorists in Jemaah Islamiyah, the Southeast Asian affiliate of al-Qaida, have been arrested and 40 of the terrorists who bombed a nightclub on Bali in 2002, leaving 202 dead, are in jail.

The al-Qaida-linked Abu Sayyaf terrorist group in the Philippines claimed it planted a bomb aboard Super Ferry 14. The ship was gutted by fire after a loud blast, killing 100 people, southwest of Manila in February. Advertiser library photo • February 2004

Sidney Jones, a researcher for the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, Indonesia, told ABC Online that Jemaah Islamiyah had been "clearly hurt" but not put out of action.

"I think the sad truth is that there are a number of very senior figures with command and leadership roles still out there," she said. "So I think we're dealing with a still fairly extensive organization with some people who can do planning of serious acts of violence."

Similarly, researchers said, Abu Sayyaf was on the run in the Philippines.

For three years, the United States has helped by inserting forces into the southern Philippines to train alongside Filipino troops in exercises called Balikatan. Even so, Abu Sayyaf claimed to have sunk a passenger ferry with a firebomb in February, killing 100 people.

Terrorists inspired by the remnants of al-Qaida have broadened operations and set about recruiting and training replacements. The commander of U.S. military forces in Asia and the Pacific, Adm. Thomas Fargo, said recently: "Terrorists can multiply faster than they can be captured or killed."

Terror in the Middle East and Europe often makes the headlines and televised news, but Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawai'i, has said: "There is more terrorist activity in South and Southeast Asia than in any other region of the world."

The senator, drawing on research by the National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism in Oklahoma City, said: "Between Sept. 11, 2001, and November 2003, there were more than 4,600 people injured and another 2,200 killed as a result of terrorist incidents in Asia. This compares to 3,400 injuries and 875 deaths by terrorist acts in the Middle East."

Although the Pacific Command is responsible for U.S. military operations in Asia, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, its most demanding job today is finding and fighting terrorists.

"Supporting the war on terrorism is our highest priority," Fargo told Congress recently.

The admiral cautioned that terrorists were increasingly likely to join forces with criminals trafficking in humans and illicit drugs, plus pirates who are an expanding menace in the South China Sea. He was especially worried that terrorists could obtain nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, is a particular concern. The Jemaah Islamiyah was founded about 1994 by Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, now in prison for his part in the Bali bombing, and quickly became part of al-Qaida's network. Like al-Qaida, Jemaah Islamiyah has used charities such as the Islamic International Relief Organization to raise, move, and distribute money.

Much of that money is believed to come from rich Saudis and Kuwaitis, who are terrorist targets themselves and supposedly U.S. allies.

Setting up a terrorist organization can be expensive, but operations such as a car or nightclub bombing can be relatively cheap, costing $20,000 to $70,000.

To train the next generation of terrorists, Jemaah Islamiyah helps finance some of the 14,000 madrasas, private schools in which the tenets of Islam are taught alongside a rigorous anti-Western and anti-American curriculum.

Says a researcher, dryly: "Those schools are not run by moderates."

There and in mosques, Muslims have come to believe that the United States and the West are threatening their religion. President Bush and other senior American officials have sought to assure Muslims that only terrorists are the targets of U.S. and allied counterterror operations.

Clearly, however, that message has not gotten across to millions of Muslims, given the hatred that spews daily from Muslim governments, academics, the press and television. That surely stimulates the terrorists and causes perhaps the greatest danger to America and the West.

Richard Halloran is a former New York Times correspondent in Asia.