COMMENTARY
Beijing must stop its bullying to improve Taiwan relations

By Ralph A. Cossa

Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS (pacforum@hawaii.rr.com), a Honolulu-based nonprofit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Like it or not — and Beijing clearly does not — Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has been sworn in for a second term.

Despite Chen's inaugural remarks, which were loaded with conciliatory language aimed at soothing Beijing and assuring the United States that he wasn't a reckless leader seeking to spark a war with his communist neighbor, China's response has been deja-vu all over again:ÊWave a few sabers in Taipei's direction while trying to pressure Washington to keep Chen in line.

Meanwhile, China continues to repeat its old "one-China" and "one-country, two-systems" formula as the only way forward. This approach has not worked for the past four years; it is likely to fail again.

It's time for a more imaginative, flexible, proactive approach aimed at winning hearts and minds.

First, Beijing should announce that it respects the wishes of the people of Taiwan and express its willingness to work positively with their chosen leader to bring about closer cross-strait ties today, and the eventual peaceful reunification of the Chinese motherland.

Second, to demonstrate its concern and genuine feeling for the people of Taiwan, Beijing should support Taiwan's participation in the World Health Organization as a "health entity," a formulation that would extend WHO benefits to the people of Taiwan while still addressing China's sovereignty concerns.

Even though this reinforces the "one-China" principle, Chen could hardly object to this formulation because he originally suggested it.ÊIs he now prepared to take yes for an answer?

Third, Beijing should freeze and then gradually, but visibly, reduce its missile forces opposite Taiwan.Ê More than 90 percent of those responding to Chen's "defensive referendum" saw the need to increase Taiwan's defenses in response to the growing missile threat from China.

Should Chen invoke this mandate, it would be difficult for the Bush administration, in an election year, to ignore a Taiwanese request for better missile defenses.

In deciding not to sell the Aegis shipborne missile-defense system to Taiwan in 2001, Washington indicated that it would re-evaluate the decision based on the nature of the threat. Beijing should ask itself if its objectives are better served by 400 missiles opposite Taiwan (as opposed to today's estimate of almost 500) under current conditions, or by 600 missiles confronting an Aegis-equipped Taiwan.

A missile reduction is more than a goodwill gesture; it makes strategic sense, if Beijing wants to avoid a Taiwan march in the direction of enhanced missile defense (and/or offensive missile) capabilities.

Fourth, China should look for ways consistent with its own "one- China" policy to give Taiwan more "international breathing space" — a longstanding, bipartisan Taiwanese goal. WHO participation would be one example. Greater flexibility in nongovernmental forums would be another.

In recent years, China has become increasingly inflexible and heavy-handed in this regard, refusing to participate and/or walking out of academic meetings in which scholars from Taiwan were invited to participate. Almost every think tank in East Asia has experienced Chinese bullying in this regard, as Beijing even tried to block bilateral academic exchanges between Taiwan institutes and their counterparts in Southeast Asia and elsewhere.

This needs to stop, not only to set a more positive tone for cross-strait relations, but because China is undermining its own diplomatic efforts to prove that it is a good, responsible neighbor.

At the end of the day, it will take two to tango (or to tangle). Some positive gestures will be needed from Chen as well.

Beijing and Washington both will be closely listening to Chen's May 20 inauguration address to see whether, as was the case four years ago, he tries to set a positive tone, or whether he pursues a more confrontational approach.

Some proactive diplomatic gestures by Beijing now could play a major role in setting the tone for the speech, and for future cross-strait relations — if Beijing has the political courage and foresight to wave olive branches rather than sabers.