Posted on: Tuesday, November 2, 2004
Many bracing for a long night
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By Chuck Raasch
Gannett News Service
WASHINGTON — America's longest and costliest political campaign ends, for now, in the hands of a divided and apprehensive nation.
The race between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry appears so close — and the Electoral College so dependent upon the outcome of at least 10 divided and campaign-weary states — it's possible the country could see its second consecutive presidential election decided without the victor winning the popular vote.
Bush eked out a five-vote majority in the Electoral College in 2000 but narrowly lost the popular vote to Al Gore.
As many as one in five voters may have already cast ballots. Both the Democrats and Republicans claim they have lined up more than 10,000 lawyers for anticipated ballot disputes.
No president has won a majority of the popular vote since Bush's father defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988. Neither Bush nor Kerry has been able to stay consistently above 50 percent in any national poll.
One troubling number for Bush is his 48 percent job approval rating in the latest USA TODAY-CNN-Gallup Poll, released Sunday. Political analysts, including some in Bush's camp, say presidents have a very difficult time getting re-elected if they're below 50 percent on Election Day.
It's been a long and unpredictable road to get here, a campaign that began well over a year ago and has cost nearly $4 billion for presidential, House and Senate races — a 30 percent rise from 2000.
Bush, 58, enjoyed 90 percent approval ratings for his leadership after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But his decision to invade Iraq has become increasingly unpopular as no weapons of mass destruction were discovered and American casualties mounted. Nine Marines — seven stationed in Kane'ohe — were killed Saturday in Iraq, and the release of a new Osama bin Laden videotape Friday injected more uncertainty and unease among Americans.
Kerry, 60, was written off by many pundits a year ago, his campaign overshadowed by anti-war candidate Howard Dean. Kerry kept his effort afloat by mortgaging his house and rebounded by tying himself to his Vietnam War record. But Kerry has not been able to pull ahead of a damaged Bush because of questions about the senator's leadership and liberalism.
Some are bracing for a long night, but there will be clear indicators along the way:
2 p.m. Hawai'i time — Last polls close in Kentucky and South Carolina. Bush is expected to win both states handily, but both are battlegrounds for control of the Senate. 2:30 p.m. — The first pivotal presidential state, Ohio, closes its polls. No Republican has won the White House without it. While Kerry or Bush could win without Ohio this time, the state's winner will have a decided early evening advantage as the Electoral College votes begin piling up. 3 p.m. — A slew of states end voting, but four in particular are indicators: Florida, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. If either man is declared a winner in three of the four, the road for the other candidate gets steeper. If none of the four states is declared at this point in the evening, get ready for an all-nighter. 4 p.m. — The last polls close in five states in the Midwest and West that could potentially make or break the presidential election: Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin. South Dakota — clearly for Bush — also holds the fate of Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, locked in a fierce struggle with popular Republican John Thune, a former congressman. 5 p.m. — Mostly small states come in at this hour, but if the election is hanging in the balance, two in particular could be very important. Iowa (seven electoral votes) and Nevada (five electoral votes) have been among the most heavily fought-over states all year. 6 p.m. — In every election, there is a sleeper battleground. Hawai'i became that very late this year. If it's still up to Hawai'i at this hour, chances are vote challenges already will be under way in other states. Washington and Oregon once were considered swing states but now trend toward Kerry. 7 p.m. — The presidency may be decided by this hour but the Senate may not. Some remote Alaska polling places close at 1 a.m. Eastern time.
